What Another Lukashenko 'Victory' Will Mean For Europe's Security And That Of Belarus' Citizenry

(MENAFN- The Conversation) Europe's longest-serving authoritarian leader , Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko, is set to run for a seventh term on Jan. 26, 2025. And even before the first vote is counted, it can be stated with a fair degree of confidence that he will prevail.

With no genuine opposition and a history of vote rigging , Lukashenko – in power since 1994 – has further slanted things in his favor this time around by banning overseas voting , removing the minimum turnout threshold and awarding himself lifelong immunity and a permanent seat in parliament .

But while the 2025 election is unlikely to bring change , it is, nonetheless, consequential.

Belarus under Lukashenko has become embroiled in the battle between NATO-backed Western Europe and Vladimir Putin's Russia. Meanwhile, Belarus' record on human rights – and its complicity in Russia's war in Ukraine – have led to extensive sanctions and diplomatic isolation of the Eastern European nation, worsening the life of its people.

As a scholar on Eastern Europe , I believe the continued rule of Lukashenko, emboldened by a seventh consecutive“victory,” will have grave implications for regional and global politics, as well as the trajectory of the country itself.

Under Lukashenko, Belarus has served as a staging ground for Russian military operations, including its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

And the country remains a critical supplier of military-purpose products to Russia , providing technologies such as optical devices, including sights and thermal imaging for vehicles, artillery ammunition and radio-electronic equipment and software.

This has helped Russia ramp up its military hardware throughout the Ukraine war, enabling the production and enhancement of key systems, including tanks, missiles and air defense platforms.

Such actions have resulted in blowback for Lukashenko and Belarus. In August 2024, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control slapped sanctions on Belarusian entities supporting Russia's military efforts .

However, Russian loans and cheap energy have allowed Belarus to avoid the full impact of these sanctions. And this in turn has only entrenched the Belarus-Russia relationship, meaning that Belarus is more in hock to Putin than it was before.

In the months leading up to 2025's election, Lukashenko's government has signaled a closer relationship to Russia militarily. In October 2024, the ministries of defense of both Belarus and Russia announced Zapad-2025 , a joint strategic exercise scheduled for later this year, which will focus on both conventional and nuclear components.

Belarus is already hosting dozens of Russian nuclear weapons and preparing for the planned deployment of Oreshnik, a Russian hypersonic ballistic missile.

According to Putin, Oreshnik missiles could be deployed to Belarus in the second half of 2025 . They will remain under Russian control, but Moscow will allow Minsk to select the targets.

Being pulled increasingly into the orbit of Moscow is all the more important given Belarus' geographical location – bordering NATO and European Union countries Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, as well as sharing a border with NATO-aspiring Ukraine.

Lukashenko has previously weaponized the border by orchestrating hybrid threats, including the cynical use of Middle Eastern migrants . In 2021 and later, his regime facilitated the movement of thousands of migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries through Belarus, directing them toward EU countries – creating humanitarian crises and straining these countries' border security systems in the process.

In June 2022, Poland responded by building a steel border wall to keep migrants out.

In addition to leveraging the migrant issue, Lukashenko has deepened military cooperation with non-Western allies beyond Russia, including China. In July 2024, Belarus hosted Chinese military personnel for joint exercises, focusing on operations near NATO borders.

These activities showcase Lukashenko's intent to align Belarus with authoritarian anti-Western powers, while increasing the military pressure on NATO countries.

For Belarusian citizens, another Lukashenko term means continued restrictions on their freedom.

His government has criminalized fundamental rights, such as peaceful assembly and freedom of expression, while silencing dissent and stifling civil society. Even speaking the Belarusian language has been treated as an act of dissent , with individuals facing detention or harassment for using it publicly as opposed to Russian, which has become the dominant language in the country under Lukashenko – much to Putin's approval.

In 2020, Freedom House's Global Freedom Score for Belarus stood at 19/100, already reflecting its authoritarian governance. By 2024, however, the score had plummeted to 8/100, cementing Belarus's position as one of the most oppressive nations globally.

Over 1,200 political prisoners remain incarcerated as of 2024, including prominent opposition leaders such as Pavel Seviarynets , Mikalai Statkevich , and Nobel Laureate Ales Bialiatski .

Independent media has been shut down , with anti-Lukashenko journalists facing arrest and harassment. The media crackdown has led to a near-total dismantling of press freedom in Belarus, which was ranked 167th out of 180 countries in Reporters Without Borders' 2024 World Press Freedom Index .

A lot of this occurred during and since a crackdown prompted by mass protests over Belarus' last presidential election in 2020. In response to those demonstrations, some 30,000 people were arrested, many of whom reported torture and mistreatment while in custody. In 2020, Belarus'“civil liberties score ,” as marked by Freedom House, was 14/60 . But this fell sharply to 6/60 by 2024, indicating the near-total erosion of freedoms such as assembly, association and expression.

Such actions have cemented Belarus' transformation into a pariah state, isolated from Western democracies and heavily reliant on Russia for political and economic survival.

For the people of Belarus, another term under Lukashenko would see the continuation of his suppression of freedoms and the increasing reliance on Russia for both political and financial stability.

Nonetheless, Lukashenko's loyalty to the Kremlin ensures that Belarus will remain a critical player in Russia's broader geopolitical confrontation with NATO and the West.

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