China's military significantly escalates its pressure on Taiwan
(MENAFN) In 2024, China's military significantly escalated its pressure on Taiwan, launching a record number of warplane incursions around the island, signaling its growing capacity for a large-scale invasion. Former Taiwanese military head, Admiral Lee Hsi-min, stated that China could potentially have the ability to invade Taiwan within a decade. Despite ongoing harassment, analysts believe that these tactics have yet to force Taiwan to surrender, as the threat of invasion is still largely seen as an "empty threat." Chinese President Xi Jinping has long made his intentions clear, pledging to bring Taiwan under the control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which he refers to as "reunification." While Xi continues to push for annexation, he has refrained from direct military action and instead focused on a combination of intimidation and non-military tactics to force Taiwan into submission.
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has employed a range of strategies, including almost daily incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), legal warfare, cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and leveraging diplomatic and economic pressures. These actions are seen as efforts to weaken Taiwan's resolve without triggering a full-scale invasion. Admiral Lee Hsi-min categorized these tactics into four types: "intimidating," "coercive," "punitive," and "invasion." The PLA's "anaconda strategy" aims to isolate Taiwan, exhaust its defense systems, and potentially justify a blockade. In addition, Chinese vessels have reportedly damaged undersea communications cables leading to Taiwan, further exacerbating the pressure.
Despite these ongoing pressures, Admiral Lee emphasized that China has not yet initiated a blockade or full invasion because it lacks the necessary military capability. Although the PLA is fully capable of carrying out coercive and punitive actions, Lee stressed that without the capacity for an all-out invasion, such tactics are unlikely to succeed in forcing Taiwan to surrender. U.S. intelligence reports suggest that Xi has set a deadline of 2027 for the PLA to be capable of launching an invasion. While the exact timing remains uncertain due to factors such as Taiwan's defense capabilities and internal issues within the PLA, some experts predict that China may be ready to act within the next decade. Meanwhile, China's military presence in Taiwan's ADIZ continues to grow, with the number of incursions more than doubling in 2024 compared to the previous year. This escalating military activity is stretching Taiwan's resources and morale, as its military is forced to respond more frequently and at shorter notice.
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