Putin, Zelensky Signal A New Willingness To Talk

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So, is all this just pretense or serious message-sending reflecting some sort of war weariness?

For nearly two years, the battlefield fortunes of each side have shifted wildly. First, Russia launched a blitzkrieg-like ground offensive that targeted major Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kiev but which Ukrainian defenders repulsed.

The following year, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive meant to drive the Russians out of the country but could not penetrate more than a few hundred meters into Russian-defended territory. The Ukrainians got stymied by acres of Russian-laid minefields and suffered horrific casualties from artillery and rocket barrages.

This year, Putin ordered a new offensive, which has taken some territory in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine but which has resulted in a limited, hard-fought rollback of Ukrainian forces.

Putin has declared success anyway.“We are not talking about advancing 200 or 300 meters,” Putin said last week.“We haven't had this kind of pace in the offensive in Donbas for a long time.”

For the moment, the main goal of the Russian campaign is to take the town of Pokrovsk, a communications hub held by the Ukrainians. More brutally consistent assaults have come in the form of scorched earth assaults via artillery fire and rocket and armed drone attacks nationwide. The daily bombardments have destroyed energy infrastructure and civilian targets, including residences and schools, across Ukraine.

Finally, Ukrainian troops flexed newfound offensive skills by launching a surprise cross-border attack into Russia. The August thrust resulted in the conquest of dozens of square miles of territory and the capture of the Russian city of Kursk.

“Everyone can see that the Ukrainian army knows how to surprise,” Zelensky declared as he handed out medals to his soldiers.“This is demonstrated on the battlefield, where our soldiers not only withstood the overwhelming force of the occupiers but also are destroying it in the way necessary to protect Ukraine.”

Ukraine has also fielded an impressive array of domestically produced drones that have hit targets far inside Russia and sank ships in the Black Sea.

So, who is actually winning and would have the advantages in negotiations?

On paper, nuclear power Russia seems to have the edge, even if its offensive moves are slow. It has thrown about 600,000 soldiers into battle backed by heavy weaponry and domestically made drones as well as many imported from Iran. North Korea has supplied rockets. Steady income from petroleum sales, especially to India and China, has helped to pay for it all.

Russian casualties number over 300,000, according to US officials, and almost a third of them are reportedly dead. Whether those figures are higher or lower than reality, Putin seems willing to pay a high human price, despite scattered complaints from relatives of the dead and wounded.

However, winning the war on terms originally expected by Putin-occupation and absorption of Ukraine-is unrealistic and would be bad for Russia, according to an article in the foreign policy journal Responsible Statecraft.“Instead, Russia's incentive is to use its growing advantages as a lever for negotiating with the West,” the article contended.

Nonetheless, the article concluded that establishing“demilitarized buffer zones in Ukraine,” would be enough of an achievement.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is hampered by dependence for arms on sometimes wavering outsiders, especially in Europe, and difficulties in recruiting fresh soldiers at home.

“Domestic mass production of ammunition is still lagging. As things stand, Ukraine is highly dependent on foreign supplies,” said Huseyn Aliyev, a researcher at the University of Glasgow specializing in Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian casualties stand at about 80,000 killed and 130,000 wounded, official estimates that some believe are intentionally understated. In April, Zelensky lowered the draft age from 27 years old to 25 in hopes of boosting troop numbers.