Check Here For Evolving Election Scenario In J&K

(MENAFN- Kashmir Observer) Litmus Test For Karra In Shalteng

Central Shalteng, one of the 90 constituencies in Jammu & Kashmir, will witness a contest in the second phase of the assembly elections.

Central Shalteng, situated on the northern outskirts of Srinagar, includes areas such as HMT, Zainakote, Kushipora, Maloora, Panzinara, Mujgund, Bemina, parts of Batamaloo and Chatabal, Aramapora, Qamarwari, Parimpora, Barthana, Mandi, Shalteng, Abanshah, Rambairgarh and Pratapgarh.

Previously known as Batamaloo, the constituency's boundaries were redrawn during the 2022 delimitation exercise, leading to its new name and adjusted boundaries.

The voter base in the constituency has changed with the delimitation. The constituency now has 107,770 voters, including 54,185 males and 53,576 females, with 9 transgender voters. There are 114 polling stations, primarily in urban areas.

Tariq Hamid Karra, a former Parliamentarian and now the J&K Congress chief, will represent the alliance.

Karra used to have a very strong grassroots connection in the constituency, and he is also believed to be the man behind the introduction of Noor Mohammad Sheikh into mainstream politics, who later on won the 2014 assembly elections from the Batamaloo constituency.

However, after August 05, 2019, Karra's presence among the masses and in the media had scaled down, which affected his connection on the ground.

It will be interesting to see how the J&K Congress president rediscovers the connection with his followers during the campaign, as the battle to win the assembly elections for him too won't be a cakewalk.

People's Democratic Party (PDP)

Abdul Qayoom Bhat, who has been with the party for several years but has yet to make a significant impact in the redrawn constituency, is the PDP's candidate.

Awami Ittehad Party (AIP)

Led by Engineer Rashid, AIP has fielded Adil Hussain, a relatively unknown figure in both the constituency and the broader Kashmiri political landscape.

Apni Party

Zaffar Habib Dar, a former Hurriyat activist who recently joined mainstream politics, is the Apni Party's candidate. His previous affiliations could influence voter sentiment.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)

BJP's strategy and candidate choice will be crucial, given the party's ambitions in the region. The party has yet to announce its candidate.

Historical Context

In the 2014 assembly elections, the Batamaloo seat was won by PDP's Noor Mohammad Sheikh, who secured 12,542 votes against NC's Irfan Shah, who received 8,215 votes. Abdul Qayoom Bhat, now the PDP candidate, contested on the JK DPN ticket in 2014 and received 1,409 votes.

In 2014, the total number of votes polled in the election (EVM+ Postal) was 29,380. The voter turnout in the then Batamaloo constituency was 14.73 per cent.

Political analysts view the newly formed Central Shalteng constituency as a reflection of broader political shifts in Jammu & Kashmir.

The mix of seasoned politicians and new entrants adds to the unpredictability of the results, making Central Shalteng a key constituency to watch in the upcoming elections

The assembly elections will be held in three phases: The first phase (September 18), the second phase (September 25 – Central Shalteng will vote in this phase), and the final phase (October 1).

The results for all constituencies, including Central Shalteng, will be announced on October 8.

The Main Sopore assembly constituency is set for a competitive triangular contest in the upcoming elections, with the candidates from the National Conference (NC), Congress and an independent in the fray.

The key contenders are NC's Irshad Rasool Kar and Congress's Abdul Rashid Dar. An independent candidate, Mohammad Latief Dand, might act as a vote splitter, which could benefit Dar by drawing votes away from Kar.

According to political analysts, the Awami Ittehaad Party (AIP) could also be a significant factor, especially if its chief Engineer Rasheed, who is currently imprisoned, is released. They believe that the AIP's influence, particularly following recent parliamentary elections, could play a crucial role in the constituency.

Irshad Rasool Kar (NC)

A son of veteran Congress leader Ghulam Rasool Kar, who was a member of the Assembly in 1957 and a Member of Parliament in 1996, Irshad has a strong political background. His candidacy could mobilise mass support.

Abdul Rashid Dar (Congress)

He is a former MLA of Sopore with a robust political history. In the 2014 assembly elections, Dar won with 8,429 votes, while Nazir Ahmed Naikoo of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) was the runner-up. Irshad, then an independent, received 5,324 votes.

Mohammad Latief Dand (Independent)

An advocate by profession, Latief began his political career with the National Conference and was active in the pre-militancy era in Sopore. Despite his longstanding association with the party, he never officially resigned.

Following the 2010 killing of Ghulam Nabi Khan (Khan Sopori), Latief re-emerged in politics, though he was not accommodated by the NC. He is currently the president of the Anjuman Moin ul Islam, overseeing the affairs of the Anjuman and Jamia Masjid, which are central to the region's political landscape.

Analysts suggest that Latief might receive support from figures affiliated with Jamaat-e-Islami, based on past electoral successes within the Anjuman.

It is worth mentioning here that Sopore, which has largely remained away from the polls, is now witnessing a heated political atmosphere, with various political parties and independent candidates having already begun their campaigns and are intensifying the contest for the constituency.

The Damhal-Hanjipora seat in south Kashmir's Kulgam district will witness a competitive contest as former minister and National Conference (NC) candidate Sakina Itoo faces a divided People's Democratic Party (PDP) vote between old and new candidates.

The division of PDP votes could benefit NC's Itoo, who is aiming to win the seat for the third time after losing to Abdul Majeed Padder in 2014.

Damhal Hanji Pora (DH Pora) is known for high voter turnout, and this election might set new records.

PDP's previous candidate, Ab Majeed Padder, who won the seat in 2014, has since joined the Apni Party and is contesting this election under its banner.

According to analysts, Padder retains a strong vote share in the constituency, which could make him a formidable opponent for Itoo, who struggled against him in 2014.

PDP's new candidate, Gulzar Ahmad Dar, also a DDC member, is expected to be a strong contender. His entry into the race could sway the outcome, given the longstanding rivalry between NC and PDP in the region.

The seat has traditionally been a stronghold for the National Conference, with Sakina Itoo winning twice and her father, Wali Mohammad Itoo, representing the constituency four times. PDP won the seat in 2002 and 2014, but the new candidate might face challenges in replicating past successes.

In previous elections, the vote count showed the competitive nature of this seat.

In 2014, PDP's Abdul Majeed Padder secured 28,698 votes, while Sakina Itoo received around 25,000 votes.

In 2008, Sakina Itoo won with 16,240 votes against PDP's Abdul Aziz Zargar, who got 11,722 votes.

In 2002, PDP's Zargar received 3,616 votes, and Sakina Itoo got 3,301 votes.

1996, Sakina Itoo garnered 12,553 votes, with Gulzar Dar of Janata Dal receiving 7,694 votes.

Wali Mohammad Itoo, Sakina's father, won the seat in the elections of 1972, 1977, 1983 and 1987. Before that, Congress's Abdul Aziz Zargar won in 1967, and Ghulam Hassan Khan of the NC won in 1962.

A total of 99,037 eligible voters are registered in the constituency, which was renamed from Noorabad to Damhal-Hanjipora following a delimitation exercise. The seat will be contested in the first phase of the J&K assembly elections on September 18.

The Zainapora seat in south Kashmir's Shopian district is poised for a triangular contest in the upcoming assembly elections among the National Conference (NC), the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and an independent candidate, Aijaz Ahmad Mir, a former MLA of PDP.

Political analysts believe the division within the PDP could benefit NC's Showkat Ganie, who lost the seat to PDP's Mehbooba Mufti and Aijaz Ahmad Mir in 2008 and 2014, respectively.

The main candidates vying for the seat are Showkat Ganie of NC, Gh Mohiudin Wani of PDP and Aijaz Ahmad Mir, contesting as an independent candidate after leaving PDP.

In 2014, PDP's Aijaz Mir received 15,610 votes, while NC's Showkat Ganie received 13,805 votes. Now, as an independent candidate, securing a significant share of votes will be challenging for Mir.

Analysts believe that the split in PDP after awarding a ticket to Gh Mohi-ud-din Wani instead of former MLA Aijaz Mir could impact PDP's vote share and potentially benefit NC. Similarly, the division within NC could benefit PDP in Shopian.

Aijaz Ahmad Mir, currently a DDC member, has the support of DDC Chairperson Shopian Bilquees Bano and DDC Ab Rashid Lone Mantribugh, as well as a few independent members whose forms were rejected during scrutiny.

The open support of Jamaat-e-Islami for Mir is seen as a boost, as the now-banned organisation usually votes for PDP. This support could further weaken PDP's vote share and enhance Mir's chances, according to analysts.

Mir may also attract votes from NC, given his father Mohammed Jabbar Mir was an NC MLA in 1996 and had a strong track record.

On the other hand, Gh Mohi-ud-din Wani, a former PRO for Mehbooba Mufti when she was MLA of Watchi, has established good connections with the people of the constituency. His extensive campaigning and long-standing connections make him a strong contender.

Wani's support in 2014 helped Mir secure the seat shortly after joining PDP. However, the current division within PDP appears to give an edge to NC.

According to analysts, Showkat Ganie, who was given the NC ticket in 2008 and 2014 but lost both times, has remained connected with the constituency through his role as MLC. This continuous engagement could make him a strong contender for the seat, with the PDP's internal divisions working in his favour.

In 2008, Showkat received 4,474 votes, while Mehbooba Mufti received 12,810 votes. The seat has been represented by Ganie's brother-in-law Nazir Ahmad Wani and father-in-law Gh Qadir Wani three times from 1977 to 1987.

The seat was held by PDP in 2014 (Aijaz Mir) and Mehbooba Mufti in 2008. Other past representatives include Mohammad Khalil Naik of CPM (2002), Mohammad Jabbar Mir of NC (1996), Nazir Ahmad Wani of NC (1987) and Gh Qadir Wani of NC (1983 and 1977).

AC-36 Zainapora has 108,493 registered voters, including 54,134 males, 54,357 females, and 2 transgender voters. The ECI has set up 129 polling stations in this constituency to ensure comprehensive and inclusive electoral participation.

Assembly Constituency (AC) 37 – Shopian has a balanced voter distribution with a total of 100,546 registered voters, including 50,748 male voters, 49,793 female voters, and 5 transgender voters.

The biggest constituency in district Kishtwar in terms of votes, Kishtwar-49 Assembly constituency is all set to witness a direct fight between former Minister of State (MoS) Home Sajad Ahmed Kichloo and Shagun Parihar, a new face launched by Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP).

Historically the fight has remained between the NC and the BJP on this seat and at most of the time NC candidates have emerged victorious except 2014 when BJP's Sunil Sharma defeated Kichloo.

After delimitation of Assembly constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir, many areas like Marwah, Warwan, Dachan Nagseni and Padder were cut from Kishtwar seat and a few were added to it like Drabshala and adjoining areas. According to the data issued by the chief electoral officer Jammu and Kashmir, 74466 electorates including 37838 male, 36625 female and three transgender voters will be eligible to cast their votes on September 18 during the first phase of Assembly elections.

This high profile seat has always remained in the news for wrong reasons like communal clashes between the communities, which some have attributed to handiwork of political parties and leaders for their personal benefits. But when it comes to daily routine, people from both the communities enjoy good rapport with each other and many do their business with each other.

Historically NC has remained a dominant force on Kishtwar seat and Kichloo family has controlled it since long. Since 1996, NC has been winning it since 2008 but during the 2014 elections BJP won it and sent Sunil Sharma to the J&K legislative Assembly where he became a minister as well.

As this time, NC has repeated the candidature of Sajad Kichloo, BJP has brought a new face Shagun Parihar, daughter of Ajit Parihar, who alongwith his brother Anil Parihar were killed by unidentified terrorists in Kishtwar town on November 1, 2018. BJP has given the mandate to Shagun Parihar with an aim to fetch emotional votes associated with her family.

Whereas NC candidate is asking people to vote for him for the work he has done to uplift the area in general and Kishtwar constituency in particular.

Apart from NC and BJP, PDP has fielded former MLA Firdous Ahmed Tak, a lawyer by profession, whereas one candidate is from Bahujan Samaj Party and three other independents are also in the fray. There may not be much impact of PDP and other players on this seat as the fight is directly between NC and BJP. As NC is having alliance with Congress party, the latter hasn't fielded any candidate from here and also Ghulam Nabi Azad's Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) hasn't fielded anybody on this seat. -With inputs from KNO

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