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Revision to US payroll shows cooler yet still robust labor market
(MENAFN) A recent revision to US payroll figures reveals a somewhat cooler yet still robust labor market, according to a report released on Friday. The revision, which was disclosed by the Labor Department, adjusted non-farm payroll growth down by 818,000 for the 12-month period ending in March of this year. The updated figures now show that 2.1 million jobs were added during the April 2023 to March 2024 period, a significant reduction from the initially reported 2.9 million.
Economist Mitchell Barnes from the Labor Markets Institute, part of The Conference Board’s Economy, Strategy, and Finance Center, noted that despite the downward revision, payroll growth throughout 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 remains strong. The revised data reflect an average reduction of 68,000 payroll additions per month over the past year. Barnes commented that while the adjustments indicate a trend towards a more gradual but sustainable labor market normalization, they also contribute to the growing evidence of softening signals in recent months.
Barnes pointed out that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had previously mentioned in June that payroll figures might be "overstated," suggesting that recent labor market data have prompted Fed officials to remain vigilant for potential signs of continued softening. Despite these revisions, consumer spending has remained robust, GDP growth has exceeded expectations, and inflation has been moderating.
Moreover, Barnes observed that there have been minimal layoffs or significant increases in unemployment claims, which might otherwise suggest a more substantial downturn in the labor market. This stability in employment conditions, coupled with strong economic indicators, suggests that while the labor market is showing signs of cooling, it remains fundamentally healthy.
Economist Mitchell Barnes from the Labor Markets Institute, part of The Conference Board’s Economy, Strategy, and Finance Center, noted that despite the downward revision, payroll growth throughout 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 remains strong. The revised data reflect an average reduction of 68,000 payroll additions per month over the past year. Barnes commented that while the adjustments indicate a trend towards a more gradual but sustainable labor market normalization, they also contribute to the growing evidence of softening signals in recent months.
Barnes pointed out that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had previously mentioned in June that payroll figures might be "overstated," suggesting that recent labor market data have prompted Fed officials to remain vigilant for potential signs of continued softening. Despite these revisions, consumer spending has remained robust, GDP growth has exceeded expectations, and inflation has been moderating.
Moreover, Barnes observed that there have been minimal layoffs or significant increases in unemployment claims, which might otherwise suggest a more substantial downturn in the labor market. This stability in employment conditions, coupled with strong economic indicators, suggests that while the labor market is showing signs of cooling, it remains fundamentally healthy.
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