China Going All-In On Drone-Led Seizure Of Taiwan

Built at the Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard in Shanghai, the Type 076 marks a notable progression in China's naval design. It bridges the space between the nation's biggest amphibious warfare vessel, the Type 075, and its cutting-edge aircraft carrier, the Fujian.

The Type 076 is about 864 feet long and 141 feet wide, with a more extensive flight deck than previous models. It may also feature electromagnetic catapults and arresting gear, showing a shift toward a more drone-centered naval strategy.

Drone carriers have power projection advantages over conventional aircraft carriers. These advantages are achieved by facilitating unmanned aerial operations at extended distances beyond national borders, thus broadening tactical, operational and strategic options.

Unmanned systems are also safer, more cost-effective and suitable for high-risk missions. Drone carriers offer a practical and cost-efficient method to enhance aerial capabilities over long distances for middle-income nations that lack land-based facilities. However, drones have limitations in environments with robust air defense systems and electronic warfare capabilities.

In a potential conflict with Taiwan, China is likely to deploy drone swarms by land and sea to overpower the island's air defenses, which could precede larger air and missile strikes and potentially an amphibious assault.

Aside from drone carriers, China is also developing a new type of underwater drone that, if it goes beyond the prototype stage, will provide the PLA-N with new underwater warfare capabilities and tactical options.

This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that China has developed a soft-body UUV that mimics manta rays in movement.

SCMP notes that while the UUV is initially small and used for coral reef monitoring, plans are underway to develop a larger model for integrated reconnaissance and strike roles. The larger models will be able to dive deeper, collect more data and be deployed in clusters for enhanced range and endurance, the report claims.

It mentions that the UUV is fitted with cameras, sonar and the BeiDou navigation system, enabling it to transmit real-time video and location information to scientists, with an impressive feat of reaching a 1,000-meter depth.

SCMP notes that the UUV will feature special gel coatings to address biofouling issues and prevent microorganism attachment that could degrade its performance.

A similar US project may have inspired China's UUV. In April 2024, The War Zone reported about the US Manta Ray UUV, described as an“extra-large glider,” which mimics the movement of a manta ray and is equipped with rear propellers for propulsion.

The War Zone says the UUV is designed for long-range missions in challenging ocean environments and aims to operate autonomously. It harvests energy from the ocean's thermal gradient to support extended missions and features innovative“data bubbles” for transferring large volumes of information to satellites or ships, enhancing its operational independence.

The source notes that while the UUV's exact dimensions and launch methods remain undisclosed, its manufacturer, Northrop Grumman , emphasizes the system's ease of shipment and assembly worldwide.

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These developments may tie into a larger multi-domain drone-centered military strategy aimed at a short and sharp victory in a small-scale operation. This strategy could involve seizing one of Taiwan's frontline islands, Kinmen and Penghu , in conjunction with a blockade of the main island .

Asia Times reported in February 2024 that China has unveiled a strategy to modernize its military tactics by incorporating sophisticated drone technology, emphasizing their use for special operations in potential warfare situations such as a conflict with the US over Taiwan.

Scientists are collaborating with the PLA to create drones that can travel long distances, submerge underwater and remain in position for extended periods.

In a hypothetical 2035 scenario, the PLA plans a limited conflict with a neighboring country using small arms, boats, drones and anti-aircraft guns. They aim to strike quickly and covertly at key enemy installations, including command and supply hubs deep within enemy territory.

Special operations UAVs need to operate alone or in groups, fly at low altitudes, navigate obstacles, engage beyond visual range and eliminate enemy forces.

Inspired by US military tactics, the PLA requires advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems to hover over the battlefield after a first strike, evaluate the damage, and decide if more action is necessary.

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