IEA downgrades global oil demand growth forecast

(MENAFN) The International Energy Agency (IEA) has once again revised its forecast for global oil demand growth, marking the second consecutive month of downward adjustments. The agency, headquartered in Paris, attributed this revision to a combination of factors, including an economic slowdown and unseasonably mild weather conditions across Europe.

In its latest announcement on Wednesday, the IEA indicated that global oil demand is now anticipated to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day this year, representing a decrease of approximately 140,000 barrels compared to its previous projection released a month ago. Despite this adjustment, the agency maintained its earlier estimate for global oil demand growth for the upcoming year, foreseeing an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023.

However, the IEA's forecasts for global oil demand stand in contrast to more optimistic projections from various quarters within the oil industry. Notably, major commodity firms such as Trafigura and Gunvor Group anticipate a growth trajectory approaching 1.4 to 1.5 million barrels per day for global oil demand in the current year.

In a separate development, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in its monthly report issued on Tuesday, reiterated its outlook for robust growth in global oil demand in the coming years. According to OPEC's report, the organization expects global oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024, followed by a further rise of 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. These projections remain unchanged from the previous month's report.

The contrasting assessments between the IEA and OPEC underscore the complexity of factors influencing global oil demand, ranging from economic conditions to weather patterns. These divergent perspectives also reflect the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of oil consumption amid evolving geopolitical dynamics and shifting energy transition trends.



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