With the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan going in seemingly opposite directions traders are looking for guidance on what to do next. A great example of the current mood across currency pairs containing the US$ is USD/JPY.

The pair has been trading in a 300-point range for about three month now. In the last two weeks the US$ has regained strength and is now trading just below resistance at around 122.00 levels. It has recently failed multiple times at this resistance and seen the market turn around earlier this year in mid-March.

However traders are now positioning themselves for the NFP releaseon Friday which could help the pair break through resistance at 122.00. In the last week we have seen various voting members in the US change their tone towards a December rate hike moving the likelihood from 30% to 52%on Wednesday. Janet Yellen then reiterated her stance saying that a December rate hike is a 'live possibility' leading the market to price in an 82% chance of a hike. If NFP beats expectation at 180.000 significantly traders are likely to interpret this as a strong sign that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December possibly pushing up the US$ further.

The latest Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes indicate that the central bank is standing on the sidelines for now being surprisingly inactive. However the bank clarified additional easing is on the horizon if deemed 'necessary'. We have had some encouraging output figures last week released in Japan; nevertheless it remains to be seen whether the current business climate can be maintained and ultimately give the Yen bulls back some confidence. This could result in a renewed pull back in the pair and keep it trading in the existing range.

This means that the current passive BoJ stance and positive market confidence around a rate hike from the Fed both supports the US$ compared to the Japanese Yen. If we can get further confirmation from a strong NFP result the bulls will be extremely confident. Watch out for a break above 122.00 for a possible leg higher to 124.00 - levels we have not seen since the summer.