We expect a mixed growth picture across Thailand's freight transport sector in 2015. While challenges from the volatile political situation - following the establishment of a military government in May 2014 - persist the government has introduced a range of measures which should help boost the economy and reassure investors. However a shaky outlook for domestic consumer demand will weigh on the road haulage and air freight sectors. We expect rail freight which is less exposed to the consumer to be the outperforming freight mode thanks to a bumper rice harvest and ongoing investment into its development and cross-border connectivity.
The outlook for Thailand's trade is fairly lacklustre in 2015. In real terms we forecast that growth will be positive albeit very slow at just 0.1%. This is due to a projected 0.3% real contraction in imports which our forecast of 0.5% real growth in exports will not be sufficient to offset to any great degree. The poor outlook for imports is based in large part on ongoing weakness in consumer demand which we do not expect to improve in the near term thanks to ongoing worries over political risk and household debt levels. Household debt as a share of annualised GDP continues to rise with the latest data showing that the debt metric was at an elevated 86.1% in Q314.
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In 2015 we forecast road freight will expand by 3.0% marginally up on our estimated growth rate for 2014 - 2.6%. We believe that an improving global macroeconomic picture should support growth in export volumes from Thailand and so goods will be transported by road haulage between manufacturing centres and ports and airports. If realised this would see 447.84mn tonnes transported on Thailand's roads by the end of the year. Growth will continue to accelerate in 2016 reaching 3.3% (which would mean a handling figure of 461.28mn tonnes) and over the next several years. Over our medium-term forecast period to 2019 we project that growth in road...
The Thailand Freight Transport Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road rail air and water; industry forecasts company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends opportunities projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Thailand Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Thai freight transport and logistics industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Thailand to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Thai freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Thailand.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
* Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road rail inland waterways maritime air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
* Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods food chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
* Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
* Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
* Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road rail air water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road rail air sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region examining the domestic politics long-term outlook and foreign policy and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.
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