( MENAFN Editorial )
BMI maintains its cautious outlook for the Argentine freight transport sector. Argentina's economic recession will persist in 2015 and will be deeper than we previously anticipated due to very weak private consumption and gross fixed capital formation. Argentine real GDP will contract in 2015 due to tepid private consumption and fixed investment growth. We forecast real GDP growth of -0.3% in 2015 a downward revision from our previous forecast of 1.0% growth. This will follow estimated growth of -0.5% in 2014 which we have also revised down from our previous expectation of a 0.2% expansion. Persistent weakness in gross fixed capital formation will also contribute to the continued slowing of Argentina's economy in 2015. The country's business environment will remain poor under the leadership of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Policies such as capital controls and import restrictions will continue to deter foreign investment throughout the remainder of the president's term to December 2015. We therefore forecast real fixed investment to contract by 0.2% in 2015 compared with an estimated 2.5% drop in 2014.
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We caution that on top of its internal economic difficulties the country is struggling with a considerable infrastructure deficit. Investment is needed across the board if the country's rail freight system is to handle increasing volumes over the coming years.
Headline Industry Data
* Total volume at the port of Buenos Aires is set to increase by 1.6% in 2015 to reach 10.5mn tonnes.
* Air freight volume is set to grow by 4.5% to 242.7mn tonnes in 2015 with average annual growth 5.3% over our forecast period.
* Rail freight hauled in 2015 will shrink by -0.18% to 22.6mn tonnes with average annual growth of 1.7% during our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends
Labour Disputes Remain A Risk: BMI notes that labour disputes remain common in the Argentine freight sector. Argentine opposition labour unions staged their second general strike this...
The Argentina Freight Transport Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road rail air and water; industry forecasts company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends opportunities projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Argentina Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Argentinian freight transport and logistics industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Argentina to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Argentinian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Argentina.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
* Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road rail inland waterways maritime air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
* Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods food chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
* Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
* Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
* Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road rail air water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road rail air sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region examining the domestic politics long-term outlook and foreign policy and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports
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