Patron Problem: Kim Jong Un Played Russia, Rattled China And Won

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Russia has since supplied North Korea with advanced drone technology, air defense equipment, space assistance, anti-aircraft missiles and electronic warfare systems. There are speculations that Pyongyang received a nuclear submarine reactor. But Kim was not merely seeking weapons; he aspired to independence.

Rocket Man to the rostrum

The culmination of this transformation arrived on September 3, 2025 in Beijing's Victory Day parade commemorating 80th anniversary of the surrender of Japan during World War II. Kim Jong Un stood on the rostrum alongside Xi and Putin. He was accompanied by his teenaged daughter and possible successor Kim Ju Ae and they were welcomed at Beijing Railway Station by a member of the Standing Committee of the CCP Politburo, Cai Qi, and the foreign minister, Wang Yi.

This was the first time that Xi, Putin and Kim appeared together publicly; also the first instance since Chairman Mao hosted Kim Jong Un's grandfather Kim Il-sung and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev at China's National Day parade commemorating ten years of China's liberation in 1959. Giving Kim Jong Un an equal billing alongside President Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping had elevated the North Korean leader's diplomatic standing.

The man once mocked by Donald Trump as“Rocket Man” and threatened with“fire and fury” was being accorded the same ceremonial standing as the leader of Russia. Among all 26 foreign leaders at the parade, only Putin and Kim were subsequently invited by Xi to tea and a banquet at the Great Hall of the People. At this event covered by global media, Kim had reaped the biggest“diplomatic windfall” of all.

President Trump has since publicly expressed readiness to revive his personal diplomacy, telling South Korea's prime minister in March 2026 how he“has maintained a good relationship with Chairman Kim Jong Un” saying“he is wondering if Chairman Kim wants dialogue with the US and President Trump.”

Kim's reply was self-assured:“If the US drops its hollow obsession with denuclearization and wants to pursue peaceful coexistence with North Korea based on the recognition of reality, there is no reason for us not to sit down.”

Beijing's nightmare: the leash is gone

For Xi Jinping, this transformation of Kim Jong Un is no longer tactical. It presents a structural challenge. For the third time, China renewed their 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance in 2021. Its Article 1 obligates immediate military assistance“by all means at its disposal” if either party is attacked. For seven decades, this made China North Korea's sole guarantor. But with the 2024 Russia-North Korea Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, Kim has a second guarantor.

The diplomatic signals of Beijing's discomfort have been too obvious. In early October 2024, Xi Jinping had pointedly omitted the traditional reference to North Korea as“friendly neighboring state” when replying to Kim's congratulatory message on the 75th anniversary of the PRC. Experts described this as Beijing's policy paralysis, saying that every option was a bad option as Beijing could not afford to lose its sway over Kim to Russia or to destabilize this nuclear power next door or, worse, to see Europe's war imported into Asia.

But Kim continues to defy Beijing. In May 2024, with Premier Li Qiang in Seoul to attend the China-Japan-South Korea summit, North Korea's launch of a military satellite showcasing its deepening military cooperation with Russia was a direct signal to China. The impact was visible in the readout from the Xi-Kim September 2025 meeting that conspicuously omitted any mention of“denuclearization,” which was in contrast to all their past five summits.