Deal Or No Deal, Iran War Has Birthed A New World Order

By vetoing the Hormuz resolution at the UN and openly supplying weapons, explosive precursor chemicals and real-time intelligence to Iran during the war, Russia and China took an undeniably partisan position. They had already lost Syria to Turkey; now they have lost the rest of the Middle East.

The Shia-Sunni divide is now a wider geopolitical one - Sunni with the West, Shia with Russia, China and North Korea. While India retained its commercial ties with Iran and Russia without causing much annoyance to Trump, Pakistan may be questioned by the Saudis in the coming days for ignoring their defense pact and remaining neutral.

It will be interesting to see who says what at the next Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit, if and when it is held.

Russian and Chinese exports of air-defense equipment have taken three hits in quick succession: the brief Indo-Pakistani conflict, the successful capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and now the Iran war have all demonstrated America's capability of neutralizing these defenses. China has clearly been selling outdated equipment; global buyers will be warier in the future.

The effectiveness of the Hormuz Strait as a chokepoint will worry China about the similar potential of the Strait of Malacca, which straddles Malaysia and Indonesia and through which a substantial portion of its oil imports pass. India is creating an island sentry post near the strait.

Despite the US's diminished weapons stocks, it appears that the lessons of this war will, for the time being, deter China from moving on Taiwan.

The biggest gainer has been Israel; the US is now visibly watching its back. There are murmurs that Benjamin Netanyahu pushed Trump into this war. Trump is not a pushover, but there was certainly a nudge.

For the duration of the war, Israel had a free hand in Lebanon, inflicting substantial losses on Hezbollah and gaining ground in the south. This will help the Beirut government further marginalize Hezbollah and regain effective control of the country.

Trump has reinforced his image as a bully taking on the Iranian neighborhood thug - a role he clearly relishes. The rescue of crews from a hostile country during the war has enhanced the image of the US; the significant losses suffered during the rescue operation will be remembered as the price the US is willing to pay for each service member.

There were such instances in the Vietnam War, too. The ability of the US war machine to operate far from its homeland and remain largely unmolested is now undisputed. The battlefield synergy of the US and Israeli armed forces has also been fully established.

Middle Eastern countries must now remain aligned with the US, despite popular sentiment to the contrary. Israel, too, will be part of the bandwagon, and the fading Abraham Accords may be back in the limelight.