CIA Kurd Play Could Trigger Balkanization Of Iran

The Syrian Kurds lost US backing after the fall of Bashar Assad and submitted to new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa's authority earlier this year, following a Turkish-backed offensive that swiftly dismantled the autonomous region they had carved out since 2011.

This precedent should not inspire optimism among the Iranian Kurds or their Iraqi counterparts ahead of US President Donald Trump's envisaged Kurdish-led uprising in Iran - one that could effectively constitute an invasion if the Iraqi Kurdish forces become directly involved.

Even so, they might still try their luck, calculating that history will not repeat itself and that the US will not abandon them again. But Trump may be cynically plotting to do precisely that, provoking a Turkish intervention that could catalyze a chain reaction of other interventions.

For instance, Azerbaijan - a close Turkish ally - regards northern Iran, where ethnic Azeris outnumber the entire population of Azerbaijan itself, as“South Azerbaijan” and could move to exploit any opening created by a Turkish anti-Kurdish campaign.

Saudi Arabia, the Gulf's self-styled leading power, might then lead some of its smaller neighbors into battle against their shared Iranian rival - with or without the UAE, which could attacks unilaterally due to its own bilateral tensions with Tehran.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have close ties, and Islamabad might join the conflict as well - either by conducting its own strikes against Iran or launching a limited ground operation against Baloch separatists on similar counterterrorism grounds to those Turkey would cite against the Kurds.