Takaichi's Thatcher Moment Over Taiwan

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First, the JMSDF could evacuate Japanese citizens, Taiwanese dignitaries and dissidents at risk of Chinese retaliation. Second, the JMSDF could conduct maritime patrols to block People's Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) reinforcements from the East and South China Seas.

Since Japan's shipping lanes could be compromised by a Chinese strike on or seizure of Taiwan, such patrols would seek to safeguard Japan's vital maritime operations.

Lastly, now that Takaichi has clearly stated her position, the United States could use its bases in Japan for any response if China invades Taiwan. Without the ability to use Japanese territory, the US would be less able to counter a rapid Chinese move to seize the self-governing island.

A Thatcher precedent

Former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher faced a similar threat when Argentina invaded the Falklands, then a British territory. An unfavorable outcome in 1982 would have toppled Thatcher's government and tarnished the United Kingdom's reputation. It also would have set a domino precedent for annexing island nations like Taiwan.

Argentina caught Thatcher off guard after she called the idea of a Falklands invasion “absurd” and“ridiculous.” This led to a surprise attack-something Takaichi is keen to avoid in Tokyo.

A major difference between the Argentinian invasion of the Falklands and a potential Chinese amphibious assault or blockade on Taiwan is that Japanese and American intelligence can easily spot a Chinese military buildup before it takes place.

Beijing would need to assemble a naval force, personnel and logistics that surpass those of the D-Day landings of World War II. Gathering such a fleet would take longer than Russia's eight-month buildup of 180,000 troops on Ukraine's borders before February 2022.

This window would allow Takaichi to direct the JSDF high command to prepare naval deployments near Taiwan and coordinate evacuating Japanese citizens, as well as American and Taiwanese officials.

War preparations

The Japanese government would also need to prepare for hybrid and information warfare. Japan is actively preparing for further provocative PLAN actions near the Ryukyu Islands.

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi announced plans to deploy the Type-03 Chu-SAM defense system on Yonaguni Island, a mobile surface-to-air missile system with a 48-kilometer range.

Situated in the Ryukyu Islands, Yonaguni is 110 kilometers from Taiwan and is crucial for protecting Japanese shipping routes from PLAN threats. Ishigaki and Miyako, both Okinawan islands, are known to house anti-ship missiles and surveillance equipment.

To counter PLAN threats, the JMSDF sent JS Chokai to the US to be fitted with Tomahawk cruise missiles. Eight more destroyers will also get these upgrades after a major Tokyo purchase.