(MENAFN) A Japanese government draft assessment warns that a major earthquake striking Tokyo and surrounding areas in the coming decades could claim 18,000 lives and cause economic losses of 83 trillion yen ($535 billion) in a worst-case scenario.

The estimate, released on Friday, envisions a magnitude-7.3 quake hitting the metropolitan region, according to reports. The projected damage marks a decrease from the government’s 2015 forecast, which anticipated 23,000 deaths and losses of 95 trillion yen ($611 billion), reflecting improvements in earthquake- and fire-resistant construction.

Despite the downward revision, the new figures still fall short of the government’s previous goal to halve the projected death toll within a decade.

Japan, situated along the Pacific Ring of Fire and experiencing roughly 1,500 earthquakes annually, plans to revise its basic disaster preparedness plan following the presentation of the updated estimate to a panel of experts later this month. A government source noted that the estimate "could still change."

The anticipated magnitude 7.3 quake would be smaller than the 9.1 earthquake that struck northeastern Japan’s Tohoku region in 2011, which triggered a tsunami, caused a nuclear incident at Fukushima, and killed more than 18,000 people. Tokyo authorities estimate there is approximately a 70% chance of such an earthquake affecting the capital and nearby areas within the next 30 years.

If the scenario materializes, millions in the metropolitan area—home to government offices and major corporate headquarters—would be impacted. Around 400,000 buildings could be destroyed, and 8.4 million residents might face difficulty returning home or be stranded.

Disaster-related deaths, including those caused by health complications while in shelters, are projected to reach between 16,000 and 41,000, the draft assessment indicates.

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