(MENAFN- KNN India) New Delhi, Dec 6 (KNN) India has the potential to increase its merchandise exports to Russia from roughly USD 5 billion to nearly USD 35 billion by 2030, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

Current Trade Imbalance

The report highlights that, despite India being a major global exporter in several categories, its penetration of the Russian market remains minimal, reported ANI.

While bilateral trade is approaching USD 70 billion, India's exports remain below USD 5 billion, largely overshadowed by imports from Russia, which are dominated by crude oil.

In FY2025, India exported goods worth USD 4.9 billion but imported USD 63.8 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 58.9 billion. Crude oil alone accounted for USD 50.3 billion of these imports, making the trade relationship heavily energy-centric.

The GTRI report notes that India currently supplies only 2.4 per cent of Russia's USD 202.6 billion import market, highlighting a substantial untapped opportunity.

Sectoral Gaps and Opportunities

Food and Agriculture: Russia imported USD 13 billion worth of food items in 2024, yet India's exports-including fruits, oils, meat, and dairy-totaled less than USD 250 million. Even in areas where India has strong global export capability, such as meat, oilseeds, and fruits, its share in Russia rarely exceeds 5 per cent.

Consumer Goods and Chemicals: Russia imported USD 3.13 billion of perfumery and essential oils and USD 1.07 billion of soaps and detergents, but India's share remained below 3–4 per cent.

Pharmaceuticals: While India's largest export category to Russia, its penetration is limited. Russia imported USD 11.8 billion in medicines in 2024, of which India supplied just USD 413.5 million, despite being a leading global pharmaceutical exporter.

Textiles, Apparel, Footwear, and Other Consumer Industries: India's exports of fibres, fabrics, clothing, vehicles, furniture, and toys remain small relative to Russia's large import demand, revealing opportunities across multiple sectors.

Challenges and Proposed Solutions

The report highlights that expanding exports will require addressing payment and settlement challenges, as Russian banks face limited access to SWIFT, causing delays and uncertainty.

GTRI recommends establishing a modern rupee-rouble settlement system backed by both countries' banks to facilitate faster, reliable transactions.

(KNN Bureau)

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