Dubai's residential property market continued its upward trajectory in the third quarter of 2025, with off-plan sales emerging as the clear driver of growth. According to the latest market report by Cavendish Maxwell, overall residential transactions surged to 55,300 deals, marking a 17.1 per cent year-on-year increase, as investor confidence and population growth fueled demand.

The standout performer was the off-plan segment, which accounted for a staggering 76 per cent of total market activity. Off-plan transactions hit a record 42,000 deals, up 23.6 per cent year-on-year and 18.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, despite a slowdown in new project launches during the period.“The surge in off-plan volumes occurred despite a reduction in the number of new launches, indicating that buyer demand for off-plan units remained strong in Q3 2025,” the report noted.

Analysts attribute this dominance to flexible payment plans and attractive developer incentives, which continue to lure both investors and end-users.“The market has become increasingly focused on future developments, driven largely by payment flexibility and developer incentives,” the report stated. Initial developer sales represented 93.9 per cent of off-plan activity, up from 90.3 per cent a year earlier, underscoring the appeal of buying directly from developers. In contrast, off-plan resales fell to 6.1 per cent, suggesting a cooling appetite among speculative investors who traditionally flip properties before completion.

While off-plan sales soared, the ready property segment painted a more subdued picture. Transactions for completed homes totaled 13,300 deals, down 5.4 per cent from Q2 and barely 0.6 per cent higher year-on-year. This slowdown may reflect price sensitivity among buyers or a short-term correction.“If this pattern continues, it could indicate a modest cooling in the ready property segment,” the report cautioned.

Apartments continued to dominate both segments, particularly off-plan, where they captured 89.4 per cent of sales, driven by a wave of apartment-focused launches earlier in the year. Villas and townhouses saw softer momentum in off-plan sales, while their share in ready transactions grew slightly, fueled by demand from families seeking larger layouts and outdoor spaces.

Prices and supply trends

Despite the mixed performance across segments, prices maintained their upward trend. Residential sales prices rose 4.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 16.1 per cent year-on-year, supported by strong demand from local and international buyers. However, the report highlighted that growth varied by location, with some communities posting double-digit gains while others saw more moderate increases.

On the supply side, approximately 9,400 units were delivered in Q3, well below the projected 22,800 units, reflecting a materialization rate of 41.3 per cent. Total completions for the first nine months reached 28,100 units, up 6 per cent year-on-year. Notably, construction timelines have shortened significantly, averaging 880 days in 2025, compared to 1,340 days in 2023, signaling accelerated project delivery.

Looking ahead, the market faces a critical test as 48,200 units are projected for Q4 and an estimated 366,000 units through 2028, with the bulk scheduled for 2026 and 2027.“While this pipeline might raise concerns about oversupply, the reality is more measured,” said Ronan Arthur, Director and Head of Residential Valuation at Cavendish Maxwell.“Rather than signaling imbalance, this points to a period of healthy normalization in Dubai's housing market.”

Market outlook

Despite looming supply challenges, fundamentals remain robust. Dubai's economy continues to expand, with GDP growth forecasts revised upward and population expected to approach 5 million by 2030. These factors, combined with investor-friendly regulations and infrastructure investments, underpin confidence in the market's resilience.

Chief Economist Julian Roche summed up the outlook:“The debate over which force would shape the Dubai market-potential oversupply or rising global uncertainty prompting a flight to quality-appears, for now, to have been settled in favor of the latter. However, the coming years will test the sustainability of price growth as a substantial pipeline of new supply is delivered.”

For now, off-plan sales remain the star of Dubai's property story, setting new records and reinforcing the city's status as a global real estate hotspot.

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