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Africa Intelligence Brief - November 12, 2025
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) North Africa's tape was led by Tunisia's 2026 wage signal and Morocco's olive-oil outlook. West Africa turned on markets and energy-Nigeria's equities ripped higher on tax clarity, a sovereign REIT listed big, and crude output prints missed quota.
East Africa moved on agri-policy and state-asset plans in Kenya. Southern Africa delivered solid retail prints. Central Africa's social-security risk rose with a fresh displacement count in the DRC.
North Africa
Tunisia - 2026 budget flags wage and pension increases
A finance-committee briefing confirmed salary and pension rises in the 2026 draft budget (details pending).
Why it matters: Wage signals anchor consumption and labor negotiations but raise questions on fiscal space and execution.
Morocco - Olive-oil sector brushes off scare; producers guide for a record season
After a short-lived quality scare on social media, producers and trade press flagged a strong 2025/26 harvest and resilient export demand.
Why it matters: A big crop supports rural incomes, non-phosphate FX, and food-industry inputs ahead of 2026.
West Africa
Nigeria - Stocks rebound: +₦2.6 trillion ($1.78 billion) market cap in a day
Equities surged after authorities clarified they will phase in capital-gains-tax changes on securities.
Why it matters: Policy communication eased risk premia, reopened near-term issuance windows, and steadied brokers' margin-call dynamics.
Nigeria - Sovereign real-estate fund lists **₦1 trillion ($685 million)** on NGX
The Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) listed its Series-2 MREIF, signalling deeper state-asset capital-markets usage.
Why it matters: A scalable REIT platform can recycle public real-estate, broaden local-currency savings products, and anchor pension demand.
Nigeria - October oil output at 1.401 mbpd (below quota)
Fresh prints showed a third straight month under OPEC target despite upstream repairs and theft-control efforts.
Why it matters: Revenue and FX assumptions remain sensitive to security and asset-integrity timelines.
East Africa
Kenya - Seasonal ban imposed on macadamia harvest and trade
The Agriculture & Food Authority halted harvesting and trading for roughly 21⁄2 months to protect quality and prices.
Why it matters: Short-term cash-flow pain for growers, but quality discipline preserves export premiums and buyer confidence.
Kenya - Senators challenge plan to commercialise the National Youth Service
Upper-house scrutiny targeted proposals to push NYS into paid construction, mechanisation and security services.
Why it matters: Governance and crowd-out concerns will shape PPP appetite and procurement rules across public projects.
Southern Africa
South Africa - Woolworths reports resilient H1 trading; food +7.7%, group +6.2%
The retailer beat soft-consumer conditions with steady volumes and mix in food; fashion recovered modestly.
Why it matters: Strong staples demand and improved fashion sell-through support cash generation and capex in logistics and private-label.
South Africa - Shoprite maps 81 new stores in Q1-2026, guides ~8% sales growth
Africa's largest grocer signalled aggressive space growth into 2026 despite load-shedding and cost pressure.
Why it matters: Scale plus private-label expansion can defend margins and supplier ecosystems, with positive read-through for FMCG volumes.
Central Africa
DRC - 280,000+ displaced over 12 months by Mobondo militia violence (Bateke Plateau)
A new tally underscored persistent instability across Kwango/Kwilu provinces.
Why it matters: Elevated social-security risk raises operating costs for traders and NGOs and can disrupt overland routes feeding urban markets.
East Africa moved on agri-policy and state-asset plans in Kenya. Southern Africa delivered solid retail prints. Central Africa's social-security risk rose with a fresh displacement count in the DRC.
North Africa
Tunisia - 2026 budget flags wage and pension increases
A finance-committee briefing confirmed salary and pension rises in the 2026 draft budget (details pending).
Why it matters: Wage signals anchor consumption and labor negotiations but raise questions on fiscal space and execution.
Morocco - Olive-oil sector brushes off scare; producers guide for a record season
After a short-lived quality scare on social media, producers and trade press flagged a strong 2025/26 harvest and resilient export demand.
Why it matters: A big crop supports rural incomes, non-phosphate FX, and food-industry inputs ahead of 2026.
West Africa
Nigeria - Stocks rebound: +₦2.6 trillion ($1.78 billion) market cap in a day
Equities surged after authorities clarified they will phase in capital-gains-tax changes on securities.
Why it matters: Policy communication eased risk premia, reopened near-term issuance windows, and steadied brokers' margin-call dynamics.
Nigeria - Sovereign real-estate fund lists **₦1 trillion ($685 million)** on NGX
The Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) listed its Series-2 MREIF, signalling deeper state-asset capital-markets usage.
Why it matters: A scalable REIT platform can recycle public real-estate, broaden local-currency savings products, and anchor pension demand.
Nigeria - October oil output at 1.401 mbpd (below quota)
Fresh prints showed a third straight month under OPEC target despite upstream repairs and theft-control efforts.
Why it matters: Revenue and FX assumptions remain sensitive to security and asset-integrity timelines.
East Africa
Kenya - Seasonal ban imposed on macadamia harvest and trade
The Agriculture & Food Authority halted harvesting and trading for roughly 21⁄2 months to protect quality and prices.
Why it matters: Short-term cash-flow pain for growers, but quality discipline preserves export premiums and buyer confidence.
Kenya - Senators challenge plan to commercialise the National Youth Service
Upper-house scrutiny targeted proposals to push NYS into paid construction, mechanisation and security services.
Why it matters: Governance and crowd-out concerns will shape PPP appetite and procurement rules across public projects.
Southern Africa
South Africa - Woolworths reports resilient H1 trading; food +7.7%, group +6.2%
The retailer beat soft-consumer conditions with steady volumes and mix in food; fashion recovered modestly.
Why it matters: Strong staples demand and improved fashion sell-through support cash generation and capex in logistics and private-label.
South Africa - Shoprite maps 81 new stores in Q1-2026, guides ~8% sales growth
Africa's largest grocer signalled aggressive space growth into 2026 despite load-shedding and cost pressure.
Why it matters: Scale plus private-label expansion can defend margins and supplier ecosystems, with positive read-through for FMCG volumes.
Central Africa
DRC - 280,000+ displaced over 12 months by Mobondo militia violence (Bateke Plateau)
A new tally underscored persistent instability across Kwango/Kwilu provinces.
Why it matters: Elevated social-security risk raises operating costs for traders and NGOs and can disrupt overland routes feeding urban markets.
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