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Argentina's Economy Chief Sets 2026 Targets: 5% Growth, Monthly Inflation Below 1%
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Argentina's economic team is trying to turn a fragile stabilization into a genuine recovery. Economy Minister Luis Caputo says activity can accelerate meaningfully in 2026, with GDP growth around 5 percent and monthly inflation slipping below 1 percent by mid-year.
The message is simple: if policy discipline holds, price pressures should keep easing and real wages and credit can begin to heal. The strategy rests on predictability.
Instead of a jump into a free float, the government is keeping exchange-rate bands around the peso and allowing the central bank to intervene if the dollar breaks those limits.
Caputo argues this framework limits shocks for households and firms that price in pesos but save, invest, and plan with an eye on the dollar. A sudden float, he warns, could bring a jolt that erodes confidence before growth has a chance to take hold.
Disinflation is the hinge. Officials believe that the mix of fiscal restraint and tighter monetary management is cooling prices and will keep doing so.
If inflation keeps stepping down, interest rates can continue to fall, lowering financing costs for companies and easing pressure on families. That, in turn, could lift consumption and investment through late 2025 and into 2026.
Argentina tests credibility of new peso bands
There are caveats. Argentina 's demand for money remains jumpy, and in periods of uncertainty the appetite for pesos can drop faster than in more stable economies, pushing people toward dollars.
The bands, then, are both an anchor and a test: they must be credible enough to calm markets without suffocating competitiveness.
Caputo also says Argentina could grow 7 to 10 percent with the right private-sector response-a reminder that policy can clear the path, but businesses still have to walk it.
Why this matters to readers abroad: a steadier peso and lower inflation would reduce pricing whiplash for exporters and investors, improve planning for importers, and widen the runway for long-term projects.
The government is betting that steady, rules-based orthodoxy beats drama. If it's right, Argentina's recovery could be quieter than its crisis-by design.
The message is simple: if policy discipline holds, price pressures should keep easing and real wages and credit can begin to heal. The strategy rests on predictability.
Instead of a jump into a free float, the government is keeping exchange-rate bands around the peso and allowing the central bank to intervene if the dollar breaks those limits.
Caputo argues this framework limits shocks for households and firms that price in pesos but save, invest, and plan with an eye on the dollar. A sudden float, he warns, could bring a jolt that erodes confidence before growth has a chance to take hold.
Disinflation is the hinge. Officials believe that the mix of fiscal restraint and tighter monetary management is cooling prices and will keep doing so.
If inflation keeps stepping down, interest rates can continue to fall, lowering financing costs for companies and easing pressure on families. That, in turn, could lift consumption and investment through late 2025 and into 2026.
Argentina tests credibility of new peso bands
There are caveats. Argentina 's demand for money remains jumpy, and in periods of uncertainty the appetite for pesos can drop faster than in more stable economies, pushing people toward dollars.
The bands, then, are both an anchor and a test: they must be credible enough to calm markets without suffocating competitiveness.
Caputo also says Argentina could grow 7 to 10 percent with the right private-sector response-a reminder that policy can clear the path, but businesses still have to walk it.
Why this matters to readers abroad: a steadier peso and lower inflation would reduce pricing whiplash for exporters and investors, improve planning for importers, and widen the runway for long-term projects.
The government is betting that steady, rules-based orthodoxy beats drama. If it's right, Argentina's recovery could be quieter than its crisis-by design.
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