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Peso Firms As Dollar Softens Colombia Stocks Hold Near Highs As Rotations Broaden
(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The Colombian peso strengthened in early Tuesday trade, with USD/COP hovering around 3,750–3,760 after slipping overnight alongside a softer, sub-100 Dollar Index.
The move follows Monday's grind lower in the pair as investors leaned into Colombia's still-elevated real yields and a broadly“risk-on” tone across emerging markets.
Oil's drift has been orderly, removing a headwind. On the home front, the latest inflation print-still above target-keeps BanRep cautious, but the carry remains attractive enough to draw in FX sellers on rallies.
Technicals back the trend. On the 4-hour USD/COP chart, price rides a declining channel with MACD negative and RSI near oversold; a reflex bounce toward 3,78k–3,81k is plausible, but bears remain in control below the 20/50 EMAs.
The daily view shows persistent lower highs under a year-long descending trendline, with support layered around 3,70k and resistance clustered at 3,80k–3,83k. In short: the path of least resistance is still a stronger peso unless the dollar snaps back hard.
Equities are consolidating after a powerful run. The MSCI COLCAP trades around 2,060–2,075 in early dealings, just off recent records, as foreign appetite and domestic funds continue to rotate toward cash-generative names.
The daily chart is extended-RSI in the high-70s/low-80s and MACD rising-so a pause toward 2,035–2,052 would be healthy without breaking the uptrend.
What moved on Monday: breadth stayed constructive and volumes remained decent, with cyclical and financial exposure in favor. Based on exchange data, notable movers included:
Top 5 winners (Monday close):
. Conconcreto +16.1%
. Fabricato +8.6%
. Corficolombiana +2.0%
. Celsia +1.0%
. Cementos Argos +0.6%
Top 5 losers (Monday close):
. ISA −2.2%
. Grupo Argos −1.7%
. Grupo Cibest (pref.) −0.9%
. Promigas −0.3%
. (Tie, minor decliners across smaller caps)
The fundamental mix-slower global dollar, disciplined monetary stance, and improving equity sentiment-continues to support COP and local risk assets.
Risks are clear: a hawkish surprise abroad, a sharp dollar rebound, or sticky inflation that delays the domestic easing path.
Absent those shocks, the base case for Tuesday is tactical mean-reversion in USD/COP within a broader downtrend and modest consolidation in the COLCAP before momentum attempts another push higher.
The move follows Monday's grind lower in the pair as investors leaned into Colombia's still-elevated real yields and a broadly“risk-on” tone across emerging markets.
Oil's drift has been orderly, removing a headwind. On the home front, the latest inflation print-still above target-keeps BanRep cautious, but the carry remains attractive enough to draw in FX sellers on rallies.
Technicals back the trend. On the 4-hour USD/COP chart, price rides a declining channel with MACD negative and RSI near oversold; a reflex bounce toward 3,78k–3,81k is plausible, but bears remain in control below the 20/50 EMAs.
The daily view shows persistent lower highs under a year-long descending trendline, with support layered around 3,70k and resistance clustered at 3,80k–3,83k. In short: the path of least resistance is still a stronger peso unless the dollar snaps back hard.
Equities are consolidating after a powerful run. The MSCI COLCAP trades around 2,060–2,075 in early dealings, just off recent records, as foreign appetite and domestic funds continue to rotate toward cash-generative names.
The daily chart is extended-RSI in the high-70s/low-80s and MACD rising-so a pause toward 2,035–2,052 would be healthy without breaking the uptrend.
What moved on Monday: breadth stayed constructive and volumes remained decent, with cyclical and financial exposure in favor. Based on exchange data, notable movers included:
Top 5 winners (Monday close):
. Conconcreto +16.1%
. Fabricato +8.6%
. Corficolombiana +2.0%
. Celsia +1.0%
. Cementos Argos +0.6%
Top 5 losers (Monday close):
. ISA −2.2%
. Grupo Argos −1.7%
. Grupo Cibest (pref.) −0.9%
. Promigas −0.3%
. (Tie, minor decliners across smaller caps)
The fundamental mix-slower global dollar, disciplined monetary stance, and improving equity sentiment-continues to support COP and local risk assets.
Risks are clear: a hawkish surprise abroad, a sharp dollar rebound, or sticky inflation that delays the domestic easing path.
Absent those shocks, the base case for Tuesday is tactical mean-reversion in USD/COP within a broader downtrend and modest consolidation in the COLCAP before momentum attempts another push higher.
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