Tuesday, 02 January 2024 12:17 GMT

IMF Raises India's Growth Forecast For 2025-26 Despite US Tariff Hikes


(MENAFN- Live Mint) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India's growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 6.6% for the 2025-26 fiscal year as the country's strong growth momentum is seen offsetting the impact of high U.S. tariffs on Indian goods.

India's GDP grew at an unexpectedly higher pace of 7.8% in April-June thanks to strong private consumption, helping it remain the fastest growing major economy despite a cloudy export outlook due to steep 50% tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report that the upward revision for India's 2025-26 growth was on a "carryover from a strong first quarter more than offsetting the increase in the U.S. effective tariff rate on imports from India since July".

Also Read | Mint Primer: US GDP contracts 0.3% in Q1-why the IMF still sees no recession

India's financial year runs from April to March.

However, the IMF lowered India's growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% for the next fiscal year, it said in the report released in Washington.

IMF's upgrade comes a week after the World Bank raised its India growth forecast for 2025/26 to 6.5% from 6.3%, while trimming its projection for the next fiscal year by 20 basis points to 6.3% due to U.S. tariffs.

The IMF has projected growth of emerging market and developing economies to moderate from 4.3% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.

Also Read | US tariff effect: ADB trims India's growth outlook for FY26 and FY27 to 6.5%

"Beyond China, emerging market and developing economies more broadly showed strength, sometimes because of particular domestic reasons, but recent signals point to a fragile outlook there as well," it said.

Higher U.S. tariffs are curtailing external demand and rising trade policy uncertainty is weighing on investment in major export-led economies, the report said.

(Reporting by Nikunj Ohri and Manoj Kumar; Editing by Kim Coghill)

MENAFN14102025007365015876ID1110197308



Live Mint

Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.

Search