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Beijing has also unilaterally claimed as its own a string of islets and shoals that frame the Taiwan Strait, the waterway that separates mainland China from Taiwan. Chinese air force jets recently buzzed a pair of Western naval ships traversing the Strait, while its coast guard has tried to block boats from the Philippines from supplying food to Filippino sailors guarding an offshore outcropping.

Last April, military maneuvers took place around all sides of Taiwan. The People's Liberation Army announced that they focused on“sea and air combat readiness patrols, ... sea and land strikes and blocking key areas and roads.”

The PLA also released an animated cartoon that called President Lai a“parasite poisoning Taiwan.”

Observers are at odds over whether these activities are rehearsals for an impending invasion or just efforts to frighten the vastly outmanned and underequipped Taiwan military. Perhaps both: the recent drills included sophisticated live-fire practice in advance of a real invasion, but were also designed to send a“stern warning and forceful deterrence against 'Taiwan Independence' separatist forces,” the PLA's Eastern Theater Command stated.

Foreign observers offered a third guess: that a drill could be a clever cover for launching the real thing.“If the Chinese are planning to launch an assault under cover of a training exercise, they need to prepare for that by having regular real training exercises so that the invasion cover doesn't look odd,” said David Silbey, a military history professor at Cornell University in the United States.

Taiwan responded to China's words and actions by increasing the length of mandatory military service, beefing up weapons purchases, developing its own new missiles and armed drones and holding civil defense drills.

Chiu Chui-cheng, who heads Taiwan's policy-making Mainland Affairs Council, warned an audience in Washington that China's military drills mean China“has been actively preparing for war.” He predicted that a takeover of Taiwan would“trigger a domino effect” that would“undermine the regional balance of power, and directly threaten the security and prosperity of the United States.”

US President Donald Trump has played down the dangers of China's threats to Taiwan. He has said that having a strong US“military capability” and being“present” in the Indo-Pacific is the best way to deter China.

That answer was in line the policy of strategic ambiguity, a strategy that has been a staple of US policy regarding the China-Taiwan issue for decades. It means the US should not commit to Taiwan's defense, but keep China guessing. Recently, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, awkwardly walked the policy tightrope:“We have a longstanding position on Taiwan that we're not going to abandon, and that is: We are against any forced, compelled, coercive change in the status of Taiwan.”

Which is not the same as explaining what the US would do if China invaded.

A key member of Trump's national security team suggested that Trump ought to take a distance from defense of Taiwan. Elbridge Colby, Trump's new undersecretary of defense for policy, has written that the US should not try to resolve every global problem that comes its way.