Brazil's Financial Morning Call For July 3, 2025

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets are set for a pivotal session, driven by a focused domestic economic calendar and global indicators shaping service sector trends, labor markets, and commodity demand.

The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) holds the Selic rate at 15% to tackle inflation at 5.53% (above the 3% target), per recent analyses. This high-rate environment supports the Brazilian real through carry trade but puts pressure on the retail and construction sectors.

The projected 2025 fiscal deficit of R$104 billion and a 76.1% debt-to-GDP ratio further heighten market sensitivity. Brazil's GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 from 3.4% in 2024, impacted by high interest rates and U.S. trade tensions.
Today's Key Domestic Events:

• S&P Global Composite PMI (09:00 AM BRT): Assesses private sector activity, critical for signaling economic momentum and investor confidence. A strong reading could bolster market optimism.
  
• S&P Global Services PMI (09:00 AM BRT): Evaluates service sector health, a major GDP component. Robust data may ease concerns about inflationary pressures, influencing monetary policy outlooks.
  

No other Latin American events are scheduled, placing Brazil's agenda at the forefront. Globally, Eurozone PMI releases (Germany, France, Spain, Italy) and the ECB's monetary policy meeting account will guide commodity export demand.

In the U.S., Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Factory Orders, despite an early market close for Independence Day, will shape global risk sentiment and commodity prices.



These events are crucial as the Ibovespa consolidates, the real gains strength, and commodities face global supply dynamics.
Economic Agenda
Brazil

• 08:00 AM EST / 09:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 49.1. Measures private sector activity, influencing economic sentiment.
  
• 08:00 AM EST / 09:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 49.6. Tracks service sector performance, key for domestic demand.
  

North America

• United States, 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 111K, previous 139K. Signals labor market strength, impacting commodity demand.
  
• United States, 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 4.3%, previous 4.2%. Reflects labor conditions, influencing export demand.
  
• United States, 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 3.9%, previous 3.9%. Tracks wage inflation, affecting spending.
  
• United States, 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 0.3%, previous 0.4%. Measures monthly wage growth, impacting inflation.
  
• United States, 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Trade Balance (May): Actual TBD, consensus -69.90B, previous -61.60B. Gauges trade flows, critical for exports.
  
• United States, 09:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – Factory Orders (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus 8.1%, previous -3.7%. Reflects industrial demand, influencing commodities.
  
• United States, 09:00 AM EST / 10:00 AM BRT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 50.8, previous 49.9. Measures service sector activity, impacting sentiment.
  
• Canada, 07:30 AM EST / 08:30 AM BRT – Trade Balance (May): Actual TBD, consensus -6.00B, previous -7.14B. Reflects trade health, influencing Brazilian goods demand.
  

Eurozone (Key and Second-Tier Events)

• 03:24 AM EST / 04:24 AM BRT – Spanish Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 51.1, previous 51.3. Tracks service sector activity, impacting export demand.
  
• 03:54 AM EST / 04:54 AM BRT – Italian Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 52.6, previous 53.2. Signals service sector health, influencing trade.
  
• 03:59 AM EST / 04:59 AM BRT – French Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 48.7, previous 48.9. Reflects service sector trends, affecting sentiment.
  
• 03:55 AM EST / 04:55 AM BRT – German Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 49.4, previous 47.1. Gauges service sector performance, key for commodities.
  
• 04:00 AM EST / 05:00 AM BRT – S&P Global Composite PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 50.2, previous 50.2. Measures private sector activity, influencing exports.
  
• 04:00 AM EST / 05:00 AM BRT – Services PMI (Jun): Actual TBD, consensus 50.0, previous 49.7. Tracks service sector health, impacting trade.
  
• 06:30 AM EST / 07:30 AM BRT – ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting: Actual TBD. Provides policy insights, affecting commodity markets.
  

Brazil's Markets Yesterday
Brazil's B3 closed lower on July 2, 2025, with the Ibovespa index falling 0.36% to 139,050.93 points.

The index briefly crossed 140,000 but reversed due to fiscal caution and banking sector weakness, despite gains in mining and oil. Fiscal disputes over IOF tax changes and a 0.5% decline in May industrial production fueled caution.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks hit another record on July 2, 2025. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% to 6,227.42, marking its third all-time high in four days.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped less than 0.1% to 44,484.42, while the Nasdaq composite gained 0.9% to 20,393.13. The Russell 2000 rose 1.3% to 2,226.38. Tesla rallied post-delivery update, and firms like Nike gained after a U.S.-Vietnam trade deal.

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Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real strengthened on July 2, 2025, with USD/BRL closing at 5.4202, down 0.75%, hitting an 11-month low.

Strong foreign inflows and commodity gains offset fiscal tensions over IOF tax disputes. Today's S&P Global Services PMI and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls will guide currency stability.

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Oil Prices
Oil prices rose on July 2, 2025, with Brent crude at $74.30 per barrel, driven by Middle East tensions and U.S. inventory drawdowns. This supports Petrobras amid Brazil's record oil production. Today's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Factory Orders will signal demand trends.

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Gold Prices
Gold rose on July 2, 2025, to $3,380 per troy ounce, fueled by safe-haven demand and technical signals. This supports Brazil's mining sector, including Vale. Today's Eurozone Services PMI and ECB meeting account will influence safe-haven flows.

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Silver Prices
Silver surged on July 2, 2025, to $36.20 per ounce, driven by technical breakouts and industrial demand. This aids Brazil's mining exports. Today's Eurozone Services PMI and U.S. Factory Orders will guide metal demand.

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Copper Prices
Copper prices held firm on July 2, 2025, at $5.15 per pound, supported by tight supply despite weak Chinese steel demand. This benefits Vale, though Brazil's steel sector faces import pressures. Today's S&P Global Composite PMI and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls will clarify demand.

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Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin stayed above $109,000 on July 2, 2025, despite a 2.5% drop, supported by ETF inflows and technical signals. This bolsters Brazil's fintech sector, including Mercado Livre and XP Inc. Today's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will influence risk appetite.

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Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices surged on July 2, 2025, to $99 per ton on the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index, driven by supply adjustments and technical momentum. This supports Vale despite pellet output cuts. Today's S&P Global Composite PMI will signal demand trends.

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Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil's agribusiness and mining sectors face headwinds from the 15% Selic rate and U.S. tariffs, with 63% of firms reporting adverse impacts.

Inflation at 5.53% and a 76.1% debt-to-GDP ratio constrain growth, but rate cuts are possible with fiscal clarity. Today's S&P Global PMIs, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, and ECB policy meeting account will shape export and currency dynamics.

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Company Updates
Embraer's Jet Sale: Embraer secured a 55-jet order from Scandinavian Airlines on July 2, 2025, boosting its aerospace outlook. Today's S&P Global Services PMI will influence sector sentiment.

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Gol's Recovery Efforts: Gol posted steep May 2025 losses but eyes recovery nearing Chapter 11 exit. High interest rates challenge progress. Today's S&P Global Services PMI will guide airline sentiment.

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Explanation of EST
Eastern Standard Time (EST) is the time zone used in the eastern United States, including New York, Washington, D.C., and Miami, set at UTC-5, five hours behind Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).

EST is applied here for consistency, as requested, and is the standard for U.S. financial markets, influencing global trading schedules.

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