US Builds Next-Generation Bunker Buster With China In Mind

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This need to address hardened targets more effectively, highlighted by possible limitations in the Iran strikes, may have prompted the US to fast-track NGP development, especially with peer adversaries like China in mind.

Multiple media outlets cited a leaked US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report stating that US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities failed to destroy the core of the program and merely set it back by months.

Du Wenlong noted in the South China Morning Post that Iran's Fordow site lies 80 meters underground, 30 meters deeper than the GBU-57's stated penetration capability, raising doubts as to whether the strike hit critical infrastructure.

Song Zhongping said in the same article that although the US dropped 14 bombs, satellite imagery showed six craters, suggesting two bombs may have been aimed at each target, possibly to reinforce penetration. He added that while some infrastructure may have been damaged, complete elimination is implausible.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth downplayed the DIA report's findings, calling them“preliminary,” and noting that the report itself states battle damage assessment takes weeks to complete. Hegseth said the report was not coordinated with the intelligence community and suffers from low confidence due to information gaps.

These Iranian lessons could foreshadow far more complex strike dilemmas in a potential conflict with China. In a November 2024 RAND report , Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga and others at RAND noted that if initial US strikes on China's maritime and surface assets fail, the US may need to launch long-range conventional attacks against China's buried inland facilities.

Beauchamp-Mustafaga and others wrote that command-and-control nodes and missile storage sites are essential to sustaining People's Liberation Army (PLA) operations.

Satellite imagery cited by Newsweek in May 2025 shows a 1,500-acre site dubbed“Beijing Military City” near Qinglonghu, southwest of the capital, with deep pits believed to house hardened bunkers capable of sheltering China's leadership in a nuclear war.

Hans Kristensen and others wrote in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in March 2025 that China built over 320 underground missile silos between 2021 and 2025 at Yumen in Gansu, Hami in Xinjiang, and Ordos in Inner Mongolia, significantly expanding its nuclear deterrent capabilities.

They stated these silos, with standardized layouts, are designed for solid-fuel DF-41 ICBMs with potential launch-on-warning capability, supported by hardened command infrastructure and possibly nearby underground storage. They also noted continued DF-5B silo construction, reinforcing survivability through dual platforms.

Furthermore, Greg Weaver argued in an April 2025 Atlantic Council report that standoff capability is essential for enhancing US aircraft survivability when striking mainland China.

He noted that China's advanced air defenses and long-range missiles pose serious threats to forward-deployed US aircraft, making it vital to use standoff delivery systems that launch from outside the range of Chinese defenses.