Will A Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Hold?

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Additionally, Israel did not fully eliminate Iran's missile program, as Iran continued striking to the last minute before the ceasefire . And Tehran did not acquiesce to Trump's pre-war demand to end uranium enrichment.

Although Iran was caught off-guard by Israel's attacks - particularly as it was engaged in nuclear negotiations with the US - it responded by launching hundreds of missiles towards Israel.

While many were intercepted, a significant number penetrated Israeli air defences , causing widespread destruction in major cities, dozens of fatalities and hundreds of injuries .

Iran demonstrated its capacity to strike back, though Israel succeeded in destroying many of its air defense systems, some ballistic missile assets (including missile launchers) and multiple energy facilities .

Since the beginning of the assault, Iranian officials have repeatedly called for a halt to resume negotiations. Under intense pressure, Iran realized it would not benefit from a prolonged war of attrition with Israel - especially as both nations faced mounting costs and the risk of depleting their military stockpiles if the war continued.

As theories of victory suggest , success in war is defined not only by the damage inflicted but by achieving core strategic goals and weakening the enemy's will and capacity to resist.

While Israel claims to have achieved the bulk of its objectives, the extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear program is not fully known, nor is its capacity to continue enriching uranium.

Both sides could remain locked in a volatile standoff over Iran's nuclear program, with the conflict potentially reigniting whenever either side perceives a strategic opportunity.

Sticking point over Iran's nuclear program

Iran faces even greater challenges as it emerges from the war. With a heavy toll on its leadership and nuclear infrastructure, Tehran will likely prioritise rebuilding its deterrence capability.

That includes acquiring new advanced air defence systems - potentially from China - and restoring key components of its missile and nuclear programs. (Some experts say Iran did not use some of its most powerful missiles to maintain this deterrence.)

Iranian officials have claimed they safeguarded more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium before the attacks. This stockpile could theoretically be converted into nine to ten nuclear warheads if further enriched to 90%.

Trump declared Iran's nuclear capacity had been“totally obliterated”, whereas Rafael Grossi, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog chief, said damage to Iran's facilities was“very significant.”

However, analysts have argued Iran will still have a depth of technical knowledge accumulated over decades. Depending on the extent of the damage to its underground facilities, Iran could be capable of restoring and even accelerating its program in a relatively short time frame.

And the chances of reviving negotiations on Iran's nuclear program appear slimmer than ever.

What might future deterrence look like?

The war has fundamentally reshaped how both Iran and Israel perceive deterrence - and how they plan to secure it going forward.

For Iran, the conflict reinforced the belief that its survival is at stake. With regime change openly discussed during the war, Iran's leaders appear more convinced than ever that true deterrence requires two key pillars: nuclear weapons capability and deeper strategic alignment with China and Russia.