Top 3 NBA Draft Prospect At Risk Of Falling Out Of The Lottery's Top Tier In 2025

Despite being widely regarded as a top-three talent, Rutgers standout Bailey is suddenly facing the real possibility of falling outside the top five in the 2025 NBA Draft. Once considered a surefire high pick, Bailey's approach to the pre-draft process has left many front offices confused, and potentially hesitant.

Bailey, a 6-foot-10 forward and All-Big Ten honoree, posted strong numbers during his freshman season: 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game on .460/.346/.692 shooting splits. His mix of size, production, and upside would normally place him squarely in the early lottery. But he's made one decision that might shift his draft night fate entirely.

A Strategy That's Raising Eyebrows

Bailey has yet to work out for any NBA team. According to ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo, the Rutgers product has declined multiple invitations from franchises selecting in the top five.

The reasoning behind his camp's strategy? Belief. Sources close to Bailey indicate that his team sees him as a guaranteed top-three player and only wants him to land where there's a clear, long-term opportunity to grow into a star. The goal appears to be controlling not just where he gets drafted, but the context he enters, hoping a franchise in the No. 3 or No. 4 slot trades up for him. But while Bailey waits, others are rising.

Edgecombe Surging Ahead

While Bailey's draft stock holds in limbo, V.J. Edgecombe from Baylor has made the most of the pre-draft window. Givony now reports that Edgecombe is currently projected to go No. 3 overall to the Philadelphia 76ers, firmly placing him ahead of Bailey in many mock drafts.

Bailey, meanwhile, is now projected to land with the Washington Wizards at No. 6. That would still make him a lottery pick, but slipping from the top three could have serious implications for both his rookie contract and the expectations placed on him by whichever team takes the chance.

Fallout from the Silence

Skipping workouts is not unheard of, but completely avoiding all pre draft appearances has triggered concern. Teams want reassurance that top picks are ready to commit from Day 1, and Bailey's silence hasn't helped.

With just days to go before the draft, the window to shift the narrative is narrowing. Whether Bailey's camp is betting on the right team making a move remains to be seen.

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