Netanyahu's Iran Strike Is A Well-Laid Trap For Trump

Iran's immediate retaliation should not have come as a surprise. Striking Tehran on a Friday-a day of spiritual unity for over a billion Muslims-was more than a military decision. It was a symbolic act, almost certain to provoke a visceral national and religious response.

Iran's drones arrived by sunset. More will undoubtedly follow in the days ahead. Tehran has already warned it will consider American bases in Iraq, Syria, Qatar and Bahrain fair game, given what it perceives as US complicity with Israel.

This is the trap. When allies act alone-especially in regions as fragile as the Middle East-they can implicate their partners in unintended wars.

The United States did not overtly authorize this strike. But as long as it is seen as Israel's protector and arms supplier, it becomes vulnerable to the fallout. Washington's silence and obfuscation in the face of Netanyahu's recklessness risks being interpreted as consent. And in geopolitics, perception is reality.

The consequences are already materializing. Brent crude oil jumped more than 10% by midday Kuala Lumpur time, with analysts warning of further volatility if the confrontation widens. For Southeast Asia, this matters deeply.

Countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines-net oil importers-will face immediate inflationary pressure. Supply chains already under strain from Trump's renewed tariff regimes could buckle further. Capital markets, long wary of Middle East shocks, are on edge.

This was not inevitable. Over the past year, there had been slow but promising progress in diplomatic engagement across civilizations. The ASEAN-GCC-China Summit marked one such effort-bringing together key actors from Southeast Asia, the Arab Gulf, and East Asia to focus on economic cooperation, cultural exchange, and regional connectivity.

These efforts were never intended to replace hard power, but rather to soften its edges through dialogue. Netanyahu's pre-emptive strike threatens to undo that fragile momentum. Civilizational diplomacy cannot flourish amid a hail of missiles. Trust is harder to rebuild than it is to destroy.

Domestically, Netanyahu may believe this operation strengthens his hand. He has long been politically embattled-dogged by corruption trials, mass protests and coalition pressures from ultranationalist partners.

By launching a strike on Iran, he may hope to rally his base, distract from domestic dissent and portray himself as Israel's last line of defense. But this is a dangerous gamble.

If Iran's retaliation expands or becomes more lethal, Israel's internal divisions may deepen. The trauma of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks has not healed.

And polls in Israel suggest growing frustration with Netanyahu's leadership and the direction of the state. His attempt to appear strong could ultimately backfire.

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For Trump, this moment is equally precarious. He came back to office promising peace through strength, but without more wars. If US forces are attacked in the coming days-as Iran has threatened-he will be forced to choose between military response and political restraint. Either choice risks undercutting his narrative.

What this moment demands is urgent diplomacy. The United States, with partners like Turkey, Qatar and even neutral European states, must reestablish backchannels to Tehran.

Israel must be counseled-firmly-that escalation does not serve anyone's strategic interest, least of all its own. Iran, for its part, must understand that disproportionate retaliation could fracture what limited international sympathy it retains.

There is still time to contain this crisis. But it requires clarity from Washington. Silence will only widen the misunderstanding.

If Trump wants to avoid being dragged into another Middle Eastern war, he must make it clear-publicly-that the United States did not support this strike, and that any attack on US interests will be met with a proportional, not automatic, response.

Great powers are often judged not by how they start wars, but by how they prevent them. Netanyahu's strike has lit the fuse. It is now up to others to make sure the fire doesn't reach the powder keg.

The world is watching-not just Tehran and Tel Aviv, but Washington, Riyadh, Doha and Kuala Lumpur too. When allies act alone, the costs are never theirs alone.

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