Oil Prices Surge To 4-Month Highs On Israel-Iran Tensions: Analyst Expects Aggressive Price Revisions In H2 If Supply Drags

Crude oil prices surged by more than 8% on Friday to hit 4-month highs after Israel's attacks on Iran's nuclear sites sparked supply concerns. Friday's spike in crude oil prices is the largest single-day rise since Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022.

While Israel warned the attack could end up being a prolonged operation, President Donald Trump warned Iran to strike a nuclear deal with the U.S. before it is“too late.”

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures traded 8% higher at $73.48 per barrel at the time of writing, after paring some of the gains from earlier in the day.

Brent futures surged 7.8% to $74.77 per barrel.

Iran's crude oil exports currently stand at 1.7 million barrels per day, and the analysts at ING think a disruption could drag oil supply in the second half of 2025 from a surplus to a deficit.

“It would prompt some fairly aggressive price revisions higher. This scenario could see Brent spiking to $80/barrel, although we believe prices will likely settle around $75/barrel. Much will depend on the supply response we see from other producers,” the firm said in a recent note.

However, Rystad analyst Janiv Shah expects the rally to face resistance over the next few days.

"The key question now is whether this oil rally will last longer than the weekend or a week-our signal is that there is a lower probability of a full-blown war, and the oil price rally will likely encounter resistance," said Shah, according to a Reuters report.

Equity markets also reflected a cautious stance on Friday, with the Dow Jones futures down 1% and S & P 500 futures declining 0.91% at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, crude oil ETFs surged over 10% on Friday before losing most of the gains.

The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) was up 7.43%, while the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) was up 10.51% at the time of writing.

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