Oracle Analyst Calls For Bookings Upside Ahead Of Q4 Report But Flags Likely Topline Miss - Retail Braces For Stock Run

Database giant Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is scheduled to report quarterly results after the market closes on Wednesday.

The Finchat-compiled consensus estimates call for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.64 and revenue of $15.59 billion for the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2025.

This compares to the year-ago EPS and revenue of $1.63 and $14.29 billion, respectively. In March, the company predicted 8-9% revenue growth and a bottom line of $1.61-$1.65.

Barely days before the fourth-quarter print, Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss hiked the price target for Oracle stock to $175 from $160 and maintained an 'Equal-Weight' rating. 

The analyst expects infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) to be in the spotlight again but forecasts a slight disappointment relative to the consensus expectation of $3.1 billion. 

“With admittedly low visibility into the data center capacity which drives IaaS growth given the supply-constrained nature, the focus is on announcements of data center go-lives,” Weiss said.

Morgan Stanley expects a slight revenue miss but sees the stock gaining from further bookings upside. The firm attributed the optimism to light investor positioning,“revenue angst” already present, and the willingness to chase a small cohort of artificial intelligence (AI) winners.

According to Morgan Stanley, confidence in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) bookings strength should increase investors' appetite to buy into a fiscal year 2026 revenue/EPS acceleration, creating a potential“look-thru event” should the quarterly revenue disappoint. 

“We lean positive on underpriced OCI optionality (Stargate/Sovereigns), attractive positioning, and a reasonable valuation,” the firm added.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward Oracle stock was 'extremely bullish' (77/100) by early Wednesday, with the message volume at 'extremely high' level.

A bullish user said the stock would run up to the $190s following the earnings report.

Another watcher was even more optimistic, expecting a move to the $250 level, reasoning that Oracle did not factor in Stargate in its guidance last quarter.

President Donald Trump announced the Stargate project immediately after his inauguration, which aims to further AI infrastructure in the U.S. 

Oracle joined the alliance, which Sam Altman-led OpenAI is leading. 

Oracle stock ended Tuesday's session up 0.19% at $177.48, while it has gained over 7% this year.

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