'Hot Or Not:' Here's What Stocktwits Users Predict For May CPI Inflation Print

The May consumer price inflation (CPI) report is a first-tier data that can potentially move the market, mainly because of the June 17-18 Federal Reserve rate decision.

Economists do not expect a spike in pricing pressure due to the lagged impact of the tariffs and the reduced rates currently in place amid the 90-day pause.

WisdomTree Senior Economist Jeremy Siegel said in his weekly commentary that, due to lagging inventory effects, he does not expect the tariff activity to show up until later this summer. 

Morgan Stanley's economics team expects a modest push from tariffs, underlined by firmer prices for new cars, apparel, and other goods such as household appliances. The economists, however, modeled flattish service price inflation. 

The firm sees May as the starting point of a sequence of increasingly strong core inflation prints.“We forecast the tariff push will peak in 3Q25 and start to fade in 4Q25,” it added.

Consensus expectations for the Key May inflation numbers are as follows:

• CPI: 0.2% MoM, same as in April
• CPI: 2.4% YoY vs. 2.3% in April
• Core CPI: 0.3% MoM vs. 0.2% in April
• Core CPI: 2.9% MoM vs. 2.8% in April

An ongoing Stocktwits poll that sought responses from its users regarding their expectations of the May monthly inflation rate showed that most (40%) see it to coming in“hotter than 0.2%.”  A relatively smaller proportion (35%) braced for an in-line reading, and 25% said they expected it to be colder than 3%.

The poll received responses from 8,400 users.

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An in-line inflation number may add more credence to the Fed's wait-and-watch stance and allow it the leeway to pause one more time next week. 

The CME FedWatch Tool now projects a nearly 100% probability of a pause after robust job numbers released last week allayed concerns regarding economic growth.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF and the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) are up 4% and 2.6%, respectively, for the year.

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