(MENAFN- Straits Research) Introduction

The global ethylene market , valued at USD 203.74 billion in 2024, is a cornerstone of the petrochemical industry, driven by its critical role in producing polyethylene, ethylene oxide, and other derivatives used in packaging, construction, and automotive sectors. Asia-Pacific dominates, accounting for over 50% of demand, fuelled by China's rapid industrialization and India's infrastructure boom, with companies like Sinopec expanding cracker capacities. For instance, November 2024, Sinopec starts up 1.2-MMtpy ethylene complex in north China's Tianjin. The new project, built in the Nangang industrial zone of port city Tianjin, near Beijing, brings the total ethylene capacity at Sinopec Tianjin subsidiary to 2.5 million tpy. Additionally, the new ethylene complex, partly powered by solar and designed as an energy and water efficient project, is integrated with Sinopec Tianjin's 320,000 barrels per day refinery.

Market Dynamics Rising Demand for Polyethylene in Packaging Drives the Global Market

The global ethylene market is propelled by the surging demand for polyethylene, which accounts for over 50.4% of ethylene consumption. Polyethylene, including low-density (LDPE) and high-density (HDPE) variants, is critical for packaging applications like films, containers, and bags due to its flexibility, durability, and lightweight nature. The booming e-commerce sector and increasing consumer preference for packaged goods, especially in food and beverages, drive this demand.

Additionally, plastic, including ethylene oxide and PVC manufacturing, plays a pivotal role in the U.S. economy, serving as a cornerstone of several key industries. Plastic's versatility, durability, and affordability make it indispensable in manufacturing, packaging, and construction.

Fig: Value of Construction Put in Place in the U.S.

Advancements in Bio-Based Ethylene Production create tremendous opportunities

The shift toward sustainability presents a significant opportunity for bio-based ethylene production. Derived from renewable sources like sugarcane ethanol, bio-ethylene reduces carbon footprints compared to fossil-based alternatives. Companies like Braskem are scaling up bio-ethylene for polyethylene, aligning with global environmental mandates. Technological advancements are lowering production costs, making bio-ethylene competitive. However, scaling requires investment in infrastructure and feedstock availability, which could limit short-term growth but offers long-term potential as governments incentivize green technologies.

• Braskem Siam chooses Japanese company Toyo Engineering as FEED contractor for bio-based ethylene plant in Thailand. The plant will produce bio-ethylene from sugarcane-based ethanol, a renewable feedstock, through the EtE EvergreenTM process technology licensed by Lummus and Braskem B.V. Such bio-ethylene will be converted into I'm greenTM bio-based polyethylene. With a negative carbon footprint, the bio-Ethylene will be produced from a Carbon that comes from CO2 from the atmosphere (photosynthesis).

Regional Analysis

The Asia Pacific ethylene market is a critical component of the region's industrial landscape, driven by strong push toward sustainability, with governments like China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) promoting greener production methods, such as bio-based ethylene initiatives, to address environmental concerns. China's ethylene market is a major country for petrochemical industry, driven by robust demand across multiple sectors and supported by significant government initiatives. The government's push for self-sufficiency in chemicals underscores regulations regarding ethylene, including standards for recycled poly (ethylene terephthalate) (PET) fiber, restrictions on ethylene oxide in food, and goals for the ethylene industry to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

• In 2024, China's ethylene capacity exceeding local demand is estimated to have fallen by 1.6m tons. But in 2025 compared with 2024, it is forecast to increase by 6.3m tons to an all-time high of 11.5m tons. This would represent a year-on-year increase of 121%. Actual capacity is due to increase by 9m tons in 2025 over 2024, the biggest annual increase on record.
• Propylene oversupply is far worse reflecting the several routes to make propylene other than just the steam cracker – the only major route to produce ethylene. In 2024 over 2023, propylene capacity exceeding demand was at 2.7m tons. This year compared with 2024 oversupply is expected to reach 7.4m tons. Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to total 20.3m tons in 2025, 179% higher than in 2024.

Moreover, U.S. demand for ethylene is forecasted to grow 51 percent between 2019 and 2035, with the greatest domestic demand for polyethylene, followed by ethylene dichloride (EDC) and ethylene oxide. U.S. domestic ethylene production capacity is forecast to increase nearly 50 percent by 2035. The market currently values ethane due to the high yield ratio of ethane to ethylene. Yield of ethylene from petrochemical cracking of naphtha, a crude oil derivative, ranges 29–34 percent, whereas cracking ethane yields 80–84 percent.

Key Highlights

• The global Ethylene market size was valued at USD 203.74 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 259.60 billion by 2028, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.2% during the forecast period (2025-2028).
• Based on feedstock, the global Ethylene market is segmented into Ethane, Naptha, Propane, Butane, Others. The Naptha segment is the largest revenue contributor to the market and is projected to exhibit a CAGR of 6.4% from (2025-2028).
• Based on application, the global Ethylene market is segmented into Polyethylene (PE), Ethylene Oxide, Ethylene Dichloride, Ethylbenzene, Vinyl Acetate, Others. The Polyethylene segment is the largest revenue contributor to the market and is projected to exhibit a market share of 6.6% from (2025-2028).

Competitive Players

• Dow Inc
• ExxonMobil Corporation
• SABIC
• Shell Global
• Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC
• Sinopec
• BASF SE
• TotalEnergies
• INEOS Group
• Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation

Recent Developments

• April 2025 - Japan's Maruzen Petrochemical, a unit of Cosmo Energy Holdings, will shut its ethylene unit in Chiba in the 2026/27 financial year and consolidate production at Keiyo Ethylene, its joint venture with Sumitomo Chemical. The move aims to enhance the utilization rate and competitiveness of Keiyo Ethylene, which is 55% owned by Maruzen Petrochemical and 45% by Sumitomo Chemical, the three companies said in a statement. Moreover, in Japan's petrochemical industry, the severe business environment caused by the global oversupply of ethylene due to the construction and expansion of large-scale facilities in China and the decline in domestic ethylene demand has led to continued low operation rates for ethylene production facilities in Japan.
• January 2025 : INEOS has closed its Grangemouth, Scotland, synthetic ethanol factory for good, which produced 180,000 metric tons per year. It was one of just two factories in Europe making ethanol from ethylene. INEOS blamed the closure on the UK's high energy prices and carbon levies. Chairman Jim Ratcliffe said these cause "de-industrializing Britain," which he says only moves emissions and manufacturing abroad without providing any environmental gains.
• February 2025 : Thailand's Siam Cement Group (SCG) will invest USD 700 million to pave the way for Vietnam's first integrated petrochemical complex to use US ethane as feedstock for production. Long Son Petrochemicals is currently working with Vietnamese authorities to acquire necessary certificates and permits to build storage and supporting facilities at the complex in Bah Ria-Vung Tao province in southeastern Vietnam. The cracker at the site can produce 950,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, 400,000 tonnes/year of propylene, and 100,000 tonnes/year of butadiene (BD).
• April 2024 - Australian olefins and polyethylene (PE) producer Qenos have entered voluntary administration following a cash liquidity crunch. Qenos operates a 250,000 t/yr ethane cracker, a 90,000 t/yr low-density PE plant and a 130,000 t/yr linear low-density PE/high-density PE (HDPE) swing plant at Botany. Qenos stopped its ethylene and PE production at Botany in February 2023 after damage to a cooling water tower at its olefins complex.

Segmentation

By Feedstock

Ethane

Naptha

Propane

Butane

Others

By Application

Polyethylene (PE)

Ethylene Oxide

Ethylene Dichloride

Ethylbenzene

Vinyl Acetate

Others

By Regions

North America

Europe

Asia-Pacific

Latin America

Middle East and Africa

CIS

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