Will IGAD Intervene In South Sudan Before It's Too Late

PortSudan (Sudanow)- The prevailing opinion is that The state of Security liquidity that state of South Sudan has been witnessing since its independence in 2011 threatens the cohesion of the state and even its territorial integrity, according to the expected scenarios that everyone who follows the events agrees are bad unless there is thinking and objective glasses that see outside the box to calculate the thorny issues there.
In fact, the matter needs an unconventional solution approach, because all the agreements that were signed went down the drain in a short time after they were signed, especially since IGAD, the African Union and the United Nations are unable to do anything, at least until now, confirmed Dr. Mohammed Suleiman, a researcher specialized in the issues of the Horn of Africa in general and state of South Sudan in particular, who was questioned by Sudanow magazine on this matter.

At the beginning of his analysis, Dr. Mohammed Suleiman explained that the situation in South Sudan and its transition to the crisis box in an accelerated manner was not a surprise because many of its events were expected, but the fall of AL-Nasir in the hands of the White Army was what alerted observers to the seriousness of the situation in State of South Sudan, especially after the intervention of Ugandan forces to defend the regime of President Salva Kiir.

The specialist in Horn of Africa affairs, Dr. Suleiman said (Events in AL- Nasir were preceded by presidential decisions that constituted clear breaches of the Revitalized Peace Agreement signed in Khartoum in 2018. This was followed by government measures and decisions that completely dismantled the agreement) and added that the South Sudanese government accused the opposition, led by Dr. Riek Machar, the First Vice President, of being behind these events, while the government's media attempted to prove this accusation. As a result, South Sudan plunged into a state of significant political and security tensions, and the threat of confrontation between the government and more than one opposition party, possibly armed, now only needs a spark to ignite the situation in Juba.

The straw that broke the camel's back:

Academic and researcher Dr. Suleiman pointed out that the root cause of this conflict is President Salva Kiir's desire to appoint Paul Mill as his deputy in the position held by James Wani Igga. This has happened, and it could have been done without linking it to the Revitalized Peace Agreement. However, the matter required some procedures that the South Sudanese government had started but not yet completed. It is expected that some amendments will be made within the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) to ensure Paul Mill will replace President Salva Kiir when the position becomes vacant. These procedures face significant obstacles within the SPLM, but that's not the focus of our current discussion.

The events in AL- Nasir are seen as a manifestation of the conflict rather than its cause, however, they were the straw that broke the camel's back. These events fundamentally stem from the ongoing pressure and encirclement imposed by the South Sudanese government on Dr. Riek Machar, who has become increasingly unable to offer anything to his supporters in general, and to the Nuer community in particular. This situation has persisted since the signing of the Revitalized Peace Agreement and has escalated in direct proportion to the failure in implementing the agreement. At its core, the issue traces back to decisions made by IGAD, the organization that supervised the signing of the Revitalized Peace Agreement.
This reality is what drove the Nuer of Nasir and the Lou Nuer to rise up against him and the government of South Sudan. Together, they represent 50% of the Nuer tribe. Therefore, according to Dr. Mohammed Suleiman, the events in al- Nasir , led by the White Army composed of the Lou Nuer and the Jikanyk are unlikely to be resolved in the near future.

Jumping off the Revitalized Peace Agreement ship: Regarding the connection between AL-Nasir events and the appointment of Paul Mill, Dr. Mohammed Suleiman explained that the Government of South Sudan is preparing to exit the Revitalized Peace Agreement, and aims to attribute the reasons for that exit to the SPLM. He also added that the government has, for some time, been planning for Paul Mill to replace Salva Kiir, as circulating information suggests that Kiir is no longer capable of carrying out the duties of governance.

As for planning to renege on the Revitalized Peace Agreement, it stems from objective difficulties in implementing the agreement. It would have been more appropriate to address these challenges through dialogue outside the confines of the agreement, which is still a viable option. However, the phenomenon of jumping ship without consulting other parties will plunge South Sudan into a cycle of conflict that will be difficult to escape. Regarding the move to replace President Salva Kiir with Paul Mill, the government has made several key decisions, including:

The removal of General Akol Jok Jok, Advisor Tut Gatluak, and the Director of Military Intelligence came after several accusations were directed at some of them. It is worth noting that they had formed a shadow team that had been working in coordination since the signing of the agreement.

The removal of both James Wani Igga and Hussein Abdelbagi from their positions, and the appointment of Paul Mill himself to James Wani Igga's post, along with Josephine Joseph Lagu to Hussein Abdelbagi's, were significant moves. The dismissal of Hussein Abdelbagi was necessary to make some balance within the presidency and to pave the way for Paul Mill, who is also from Northern Bahr el Ghazal.

The above-mentioned changes led to a series of crises, including the attack on General Akol Koor's residence following his arrest, as well as heightened tensions across the state of South Sudanese political scene. However, more critically, Paul Mill , after his appointment was behind the dismissal of several officials affiliated with Riek Machar from their constitutional positions. As a result, the path to the events in AL- Nasir was effectively opened, which subsequently unfolded as a direct consequence of these developments.

The signs of war are now at the doorstep

Regarding the impact of the fall of AL-Nasir city to the rebels on the course of events, Dr. Mohamed Suliman said, The government has taken a series of measures and decisions that have increased the existing tension. He summarized these decisions as follows:

- Dismissing the recently appointed Governor of Jonglei State and appointing Dr. Riek Gai Kok instead.
- The dismissed Governor belonged to the group of political parties (SWA) that signed the Revitalized Peace Agreement.

The dismissal the Governor of Upper Nile, affiliated with Riek Machar, and the appointment of General John Kong instead. John Kong is one of those who broke away from Dr. Riek Machar.

The entry of Ugandan forces into State of South Sudan and their establishment of military bases outside Juba, where they carried out aerial bombardment of rebel forces in Nasir.

Mobilization to liberate AL- Nasir, with participation from Shilluk militias led by James Olunga and Dinka militias from Upper Nile North. Notably, James Olunga is one of those who broke away from Riek Machar. The researcher and South Sudan expert Dr. Suleiman concluded that the government of South Sudan state has disregarded the Revitalized Peace Agreement, and the restrictions imposed on Dr. Riek Machar have intensified, culminating in his dismissal and arrest. The signs of war are now at the doorstep.

Expected Scenarios :

Dr. Suleiman elaborated on the two expected scenarios for the course of this crisis. However, he summarized them by stating that the first scenario predicts the outbreak of war between the South Sudanese government and the Nuer tribe, which would spread throughout the Greater Upper Nile region only. The government is currently mobilizing for a war against the rebels in AL- Nasir, and the war has already begun. The indicators of the first scenario becoming reality are as follows:
The government has chosen to wage war against the rebels in Nasir. The war has already begun, and it will be difficult to resolve if the rainy season sets in. The Nuer front in Nasir has shown cohesion, whereas in the past they would have been fighting each other at this time. As part of the mobilization, the leaders of the three Greater Upper Nile states are now from the Nuer community, which suggests a plan to eliminate the SPLM, in opposition the most representative opposition group for the Nuer people.
The external support for the Nuer comes from active Nuer individuals. The second scenario, as outlined by Dr. Suleiman, involves the outbreak of a full-scale war in State of South Sudan, sparked from Juba. The key features of this scenario include:

- Unrest in the Greater Upper Nile region, hindering the implementation of the Revitalized Peace Agreement.
- The emergence of a rebellion in Warrap State and another in Western Equatoria State.

The presence of rebel groups that have already taken a stance opposing the actions of the South Sudanese government, and have begun to militarily activate in Eastern Equatoria. Expectations of unrest and mutinies within the SPLA due to the dire living conditions and prolonged non-payment of salaries.
High tension in Juba and widespread popular discontent due to the economic situation, South Sudanese rejection of the Ugandan military presence, and the weakened performance of the security Service following the removal of General Akol Kor.
The repercussions and their impact on Sudan
The researcher and academic in Horn of Africa affairs, particularly South Sudan, confirmed that if the first scenario materializes, the expected repercussions could be as follows:
The war may spread to all Nuer regions.
Achieving peace would be impossible under the current South Sudanese government.
It could lead to the secession of the Greater Upper Nile region from South Su
On the other hand, if the second scenario occurs, the expected repercussions would be limited to:
The loss of central authority due to the disintegration of the SPLA, transforming South Sudan into a failed state.
Everyone fleeing Juba to save themselves.
Regarding the impact of the two scenarios on Sudan, he said: (There is no doubt that the outbreak of war in state of South Sudan would exacerbate the problems and challenges facing the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The presence of Ugandan forces near the Sudanese border, coupled with the known and documented Emirati interference, poses a significant threat to stability in Sudan and the region. This would likely revive tensions in the relationship between South Sudan and Sudan, lead to an influx of refugees into Sudan, and potentially halt oil exports. These factors combined would pose a real threat to both countries and present challenges to the region).

The starting point for a solution is the release of Dr. Riek Machar, Dr. Suleiman, as one of the participants in the preparation of the Revitalized Peace Agreement signed in Khartoum to resolve the problems of South Sudan, stated that the agreement is not implementable due to various reasons. He emphasized that the solution lies outside the confines of the agreement, requiring (out-of-the-box thinking). He stressed the need for urgent intervention by IGAD to secure the release of Dr. Riek Machar, as they did previously, to pave the way for a future peace agreement. He justified this by stating that freeing the Vice President is essential for leading constructive dialogue that avoids past mistakes, ends the current state of tension in South Sudan, and averts a devastating war. This needs to happen before it's too late.

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