Russia`s makes main demand from West

(MENAFN) As global attention focuses on a potential breakthrough in Ukraine peace talks, prominent Russian analyst Fyodor Lukyanov argues that the real issue for Moscow isn't territorial control, but long-term security guarantees from the West.

Although diplomatic activity has intensified and leaked proposals abound, Lukyanov cautions that it's difficult to discern what’s genuine and what’s strategic misinformation. What’s evident, however, is that Russia is being offered a compromise: retain current territorial gains in exchange for concessions, but with little guarantee of lasting peace.

While discussions currently center on land—particularly areas already under Russian control—Lukyanov notes that formal international recognition of Moscow’s sovereignty over these territories seems unlikely for now. At best, Russia may secure informal acceptance and a pledge that Ukraine will not attempt to reclaim them militarily. But in today’s unstable geopolitical climate, even legally binding deals offer no guarantees of permanence.

Crucially, Lukyanov argues, territory was never the root cause of the conflict. Instead, it stemmed from long-standing security disputes between Russia and the West. Moscow’s original demand for “demilitarization” of Ukraine—limiting both internal military capabilities and external arms supplies—reflects a deeper goal: forcing acknowledgment of Russia’s right to influence European security structures, particularly after decades of NATO expansion.

Lukyanov suggests that while the U.S. under President Donald Trump may downplay NATO’s role, pushing a territorial deal may be easier than persuading Europe to concede to Russian security concerns. Nevertheless, Moscow views such guarantees as non-negotiable, even if offered significant incentives like sanctions relief or formal acknowledgment of land control.

This difference in priorities creates a gap in diplomatic urgency. Washington seeks a swift resolution, but Russia believes only a carefully negotiated agreement can bring lasting stability. Still, Lukyanov warns that the current political conditions—especially in the U.S.—may offer a rare opportunity that Moscow is wary of wasting.

He concludes with a reminder from history: wars don’t always end with one round of fighting. A ceasefire may pause hostilities, but it doesn’t guarantee peace.

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