Lightbox CRE April Index Surpasses 100 In First Read Of A Post-Tariff Market

(MENAFN- PR Newswire) The Index rose slightly to 109, up from 107.9 in March, marking the second consecutive month exceeding 100 and the highest reading since June 2022. While the month-over-month gain was just 1%-a notable deceleration from February and March-activity across property listings, environmental due diligence, and appraisals continued to move forward, offering reassurance that capital is still flowing and transactions are still happening.

"Despite a noisy macro backdrop, April's Index shows that commercial real estate activity is still advancing," said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. "The momentum from earlier in the year hasn't vanished-but the tempo has clearly slowed as caution sets in."

The LightBox CRE Activity Index measures national activity across commercial property listings, environmental due diligence, and appraisals-key functions that support CRE transactions and collectively serve as a leading indicator of deal activity. The Index is normalized to account for variations in the number of business days per month, providing a consistent measure of market trends.

April's Index reflects decelerating-but still positive-growth.

• Commercial property listings rose 3% from March and 48% year-over-year as more sellers brought inventory to market.
• Phase I environmental site assessments (ESAs), typically conducted before major CRE loans or transactions, were flat month-over-month but 12% higher than one year ago.
• Lender-driven commercial appraisal orders climbed 6% over March and 5% year-over-year, signaling continued demand for valuations ahead of transactions and refinancing.

"CRE professionals remain actively engaged, though with a more disciplined and selective approach," said Dianne Crocker, research director at LightBox. "It's too soon to say whether the market is in retreat, but investors and lenders are recalibrating as they move forward with heightened caution and strategic focus."

The slower pace of growth in April follows stronger gains earlier in the year-8% in March and 15% in February. The report notes that the deceleration comes amid a broader economic cooling: GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since the pandemic, and lenders' sentiment weakened as reflected in Q1 earnings calls and the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book. Still, the CRE market has not shown signs of systemic slowdown.

"April marked the fourth week of the new tariff environment, and CRE activity is still holding steady," Clancy added. "If the wheels stay on through May, confidence could begin to return and bring with it tighter spreads, more lending, and a gradual return to normalcy."

The LightBox report emphasizes that while the pace has cooled, deal activity continues across asset types and geographies. CMBS issuance has picked up, insurers are reentering the lending market, and institutional capital is being deployed-especially into distressed opportunities. Buyers remain active, but more selective, and lenders are increasingly focused on refinancing opportunities and portfolio optimization.

"One month doesn't make a trend," Crocker said. "While our April data showed CRE is a steady harbor in choppy waters, May metrics will reveal whether investors are moving forward with conviction or holding back the reins, and that could be an early sign of how the rest of the year unfolds."

Dive into April's Index Numbers

About LightBox

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SOURCE LightBoxRE

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