Before The Missiles: How Disinformation Could Spark Asia's Next War

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The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2024 lists“misinformation and disinformation” among the top threats to global stability. In conflict zones, this threat is magnified.

False narratives, deepfakes and coordinated campaigns blur the line between fact and fiction, weakening public trust in journalism, governance and even democracy itself.

This erosion of trust extends far beyond Ukraine. In Asia, governments from India to the Philippines have faced and used disinformation campaigns-both foreign and domestic-that polarize societies and distort elections.

In Taiwan, digital propaganda from China aims to discredit the democratic process and sow division. These aren't isolated incidents - they're previews of a future shaped by invisible warfare.

Media divide: Russia vs the West

Media framing plays a decisive role in how populations understand conflict. According to Erving Goffman's Framing Theory, how information is presented influences how people perceive reality.

Consider the 2022 missile strike on a shopping mall in Kremenchuk, a city in Ukraine. Western media labeled it a deliberate Russian attack on civilians, citing satellite imagery and Ukrainian sources. Russian outlets claimed the target was a military facility and accused Western media of exaggeration.

The incident exemplifies how the same event can generate two divergent truths - one for the West, another for Russia's domestic audience.

Propaganda doesn't just manipulate facts - it manufactures consensus. During Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, state media claimed 95% of residents supported the move, despite reports of coercion and a lack of international observers.

The goal wasn't just to legitimize the annexation - it was to silence dissent by presenting unity as fact.

In Asia, similar tactics have been used to frame controversial actions. China's handling of Hong Kong protests, India's narrative around Kashmir or Myanmar's coverage of the Rohingya crisis all show how governments use media control to build the illusion of national consensus while marginalizing opposition voices.

Parallel realities and global polarization

One of the most troubling consequences of information warfare is the creation of parallel realities.

In Russia, the invasion of Ukraine is widely seen as a“special military operation” to protect ethnic Russians and counter NATO aggression. In the West, it is viewed as a blatant breach of international law.

This polarization makes diplomatic dialogue nearly impossible. When populations are fed mutually exclusive worldviews, compromise becomes a sign of weakness, not progress.

This pattern is visible in Asia as well - from cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwanto domestic divides over foreign policy in Japan and South Korea.

Despite intense propaganda from Russian media and its allies, Ukrainian public opinion has remained largely pro-Western. A 2023 poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 89% of Ukrainians support NATO membership. Even in historically pro-Russian areas, support for Ukrainian sovereignty is rising.

However, war fatigue is setting in. Gallup reported that support for fighting until total victory dropped from 73% in 2022 to 38% in 2023. These shifting sentiments highlight the psychological toll of prolonged conflict - a reality that authoritarian regimes often exploit through information manipulation.