Tensions Rise In South Sudan Amid Political Dispute

KHARTOUM, April 17 (KUNA) -- South Sudan is going through a critical phase, with tensions escalating between President Salva Kiir and his first vice president, Riek Machar, in a scene reminiscent of the civil war that devastated the country between 2013 and 2018.
The latest chapter in the crisis was the house arrest imposed on Machar in late March, which his movement considered a "de facto collapse of the peace agreement" and raised fears that the country could slide back into violence.
The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) expressed concern, with its head, Nicholas Haysom, warning that the country is "teetering on the brink of all-out civil war," citing the fragility of institutions and the faltering implementation of the 2018 peace agreement.
Areas such as Nasir and Upper Nile, in the north of the country, witnessed bloody clashes between government forces and the "White Army" militia loyal to Machar. Heavy weapons and airstrikes, described as indiscriminate, were used, resulting in civilian casualties and the displacement of thousands.
Despite more than five years having passed since the signing of the agreement, the Special Court for the Prosecution of War Crimes has not been activated, and security arrangements, including the integration of forces, have stalled. Elections, originally scheduled for 2022, have been repeatedly postponed without a clear timeframe, deepening mistrust among the partners.
Analysts view the recent actions against Machar as an attempt to marginalize him politically ahead of any electoral arrangements.
Political analyst Atem Simon told KUNA that the current situation is reminiscent of the events of 2016, when violent clashes erupted in Juba following a similar dispute and resulted in Machar's departure from the country. Meanwhile, South Sudan journalist Muthanna Abdulqadir warned in a statement to KUNA that renewed fighting could lead to a "proxy war," given the readiness of various armed groups and the rise in regional tensions linked to the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Sudan.
The conflict between Kiir and Machar over power and resources, based on ethnic and political considerations, threatens to spark a new wave of violence, especially with reports of child recruitment and the mobilization of forces in rural areas, he added.
Amid the escalation, Uganda officially announced the deployment of its special forces units to Juba to protect President Kiir. The commander of the Ugandan Defence Forces, Muhoozi Kainerugaba-President Museveni's son-affirmed that his country recognizes Kiir as the legitimate president, warning that any threat against him would be considered a declaration of war.
Attention is turning to regional efforts to contain the crisis, such as mediation by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and the role of neighbouring countries like Uganda and Ethiopia. However, observers warn that any settlement will remain fragile unless state institutions are activated and the peace agreement is seriously implemented, given the lack of trust between the parties.
South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011, after decades of conflict, but quickly descended into civil war in 2013 following a political dispute between Kiir and Machar. This war left approximately 400,000 dead and more than 2.5 million displaced, according to international estimates.
In 2018, a peace agreement was signed that restored Machar to the position of first vice president in a national unity government, supposed to lead the country toward democratic elections. These elections have yet to be held, amid repeated delays and deep disagreements. (end) mam

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