EUR/USD Forex Signal Today 16/04: To Retest 1.1200 (Chart)

(MENAFN- Daily Forex) Bearish view

• Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1200.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.1470
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1400.
• Add a stop-loss to 1.1200.

The EUR/USD exchange rate pulled back as the recent rally took a breather after the latest European industrial production data. The pair was trading at 1.1280, down from this week's high of 1.1470.

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The EUR/USD pair has been bullish in the past few weeks because of the falling US dollar. Economists expect that the greenback will continue slowing in the next few days. A survey of fund managers showed that they expect it to continue falling in the next twelve months. The bearishness was the worst since 2006.

This outlook is because of Donald Trump's policies, which have led to questions about the reliability of the United States and its role as a safe haven. The most damaging of these policies have been on tariffs, which are expected to have a major implication on the world economy.

Trump placed a 10% tariff on most goods from Europe, and a 25% levy on the bloc's vehicles, steel, and aluminium. In a statement on Tuesday, the head of European trade negotiations said that talks would take longer than expected because of the little clarity on the US side.

His statement came after Eurostat data showed that the industrial production rose by 1.2% in February after falling by 0.6% a month earlier. The economic sentiment index declined to minus 18.5 after growing to 11.5 a month earlier. Most executives are concerned about the ongoing trade war.

The next key EUR/USD news will be the upcoming European consumer inflation data. Economists expect the data to show that the headline inflation rose to 2.3%, while the core CPI rose to 2.6%.

The other key data to watch will be the US retail sales, manufacturing, and industrial production.

EURUSD Chart by TradingViewEUR/USD technical analysis

The EUR/USD exchange rate peaked at 1.1470, its highest level in years as the US dollar index plunged. It recently crossed the important resistance level at 1.1210, the upper side of the cup and handle pattern, a popular continuation sign.

The pair has remained above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which have formed a bullish crossover pattern.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicators have continued rising as the momentum gained steam.

Therefore, the pair will likely have a break-and-retest pattern by falling to the support at 1.1200 and then resuming the bullish trend. If this happens, the pair will likely rise to 1.1500.

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