INDIA Bloc Has To Look Forward Taking Lessons From AAP Defeat In Delhi

2025-02-11 01:23:43

(MENAFN- The Arabian Post)

By Nitya Chakraborty

The victory of the BJP in the Delhi assembly elections defeating the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) convincingly is certainly a jolt to the opposition INDIA bloc, but it does not mean the end of AAP, or the final tolls for the INDIA bloc, as some commentators in the national media and the TV channels are projecting it to be. Those who have studied the mood of the Delhi electorate knew that in the 2025 elections, things would be much tougher for the AAP to retain power by defeating the BJP, as there was anti-incumbency after full two terms of Delhi's ruling party. The final clincher was the big income tax relief in the 2025-26 Union budget announced on February 1, four days before the polls, and the earlier announcement on the setting up of the eighth pay commission for the central government employees.

The verdict favouring BJP was precipitated by the salaried middle classes of Delhi, who constitute majority of the 1.56 crore Delhi electorate. There were direct cash benefits to them. That certainly had an immediate impact on the polling day a few days later. But still, the voting figures show that the fight was not one-way; rather, it was a bitter battle. BJP got 45.56 per cent of the votes, while AAP secured 43.57 per cent, meaning a difference of only 2 per cent, though in seat terms, BJP got 48 and AAP only 22.

Further, taking both the INDIA bloc parties AAP and Congress votes together, the AAP-Congress combine got nearly 50 per cent of the votes and in terms of seats, 14 more seats would have come to the INDIA bloc kitty if there were an alliance. This means that INDIA bloc could have had a narrow victory by getting 36 out of the total of 70 seats, if there had been an alliance of the AAP and the Congress. Further, the AAP retained its base of Dalits, poor and Muslims, as the analysis of the constituency-wise voting patterns showed. The verdict was the result of a major middle class shift from AAP to BJP on the polling day, while the poor stood more or less by the AAP and the Congress.

So, the lesson is that both AAP and the Congress mishandled the alliance issue before the assembly polls. They should have worked out some understanding on seat-sharing before the assembly elections, taking into account the success of the BJP in the earlier assembly polls in Haryana and Maharashtra. Since this did not take place, the best thing for the AAP and the Congress now would be to assess the ground situation with objectivity and prepare for the next round to take on the BJP. AAP has conceded defeat and Arvind Kejriwal has promised to work as the responsible opposition. That is the perfect democratic approach in a vibrant parliamentary system.

Now let us look at the emerging political situation. So long AAP was the ruling party in two states, Delhi and Punjab. Delhi is now lost, and only Punjab remains. BJP will focus most on Punjab now in North India and Bihar in the eastern part, which is going to polls at the end of this year. The AAP government will be a bit shaky in Punjab, because there are some similarities in the electoral pattern between Delhi and Punjab. The Congress which was dethroned in Punjab by the AAP in the last assembly elections, will be most active in organising itself in Punjab to take on the AAP government in the state. BJP will try equally to expand its position and it may try to bring into its fold new allies to take on both the AAP and the Congress. It will be a triangular fight in the electoral arena of Punjab, where, again like Delhi, the two INDIA bloc partners will be facing off each other. But there is a difference: BJP is not a big force in Punjab as of now. AAP and the Congress will be the main two contesters for the coming assembly elections.

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For the INDIA bloc, Bihar is most important assembly election and all efforts will have to be made to make a perfect electoral pact of Mahagathbandhan led by the RJD to take on the Nitish Kumar-led NDA government in the year end elections. INDIA bloc has to win this election at any cost. With that in mind, the Congress has also to behave properly because the party, despite its low strike rate, always demands more seats compared to its actual strength on the ground. This time, RJD and the Congress should start electoral talks much before and work out that.

With the CPI(ML)-L firmly in command in a large working class sections in Bihar, a solid alliance of the INDIA bloc parties is possible in Bihar, comprising RJD, Congress, and the three left parties CPI, CPI(M) and the CPI(ML)-L. The CPI(ML)-L got 12 seats in 2020 assembly polls by fighting in 19 seats recording the best strike rate. The party is entitled to more seats in 2025 assembly polls. The RJD has to ensure that. The success of the INDIA bloc in Bihar assembly elections is of crucial importance in derailing the BJP juggernaut, which is on a high after its successes in Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi assembly elections.

For BJP, the New Year 2025 had started in the backdrop of the restoration of the ruling party's confidence following its electoral successes in the state assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, and completely overshadowing the Samajwadi Party in the assembly by-polls in Uttar Pradesh. Now, in February, the second month of the year, this confidence has further got a boost after its victory in Delhi assembly elections and annexing the assembly seat Milkipur in Uttar Pradesh from Samajwadi Party with a thumping margin of 62,000 votes. The Party leadership of the BJP and the Prime Minister Narendra Modi have shown their capacity of turnaround in a short period of six to eight months following their drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections, the results of which were announced on June 4, 2024.

In elections, wins and losses are normal. Every combination has to take proper lessons from the earlier reverses, identify the factors for defeat and then work out remedial measures. The BJP took up the issue of course correction seriously after its dismal performance in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when its strength came down to 240 from the 2019 figure of 303. The uncertainty created after the formation of the third NDA government under Narendra Modi with minority BJP taking help from the others like JD(U) and the TDP, is gone now. Prime Minister has shown to his government allies that the BJP is in control and things should politically improve in the coming period.

While the BJP is alert and agile about defeating the INDIA bloc with its continuous updating of the political and electoral strategy, there is a sort of slumber in the INDIA bloc parties. The leadership is inactive. There has been no full-fledged meeting of the INDIA bloc leaders since the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress is the leader of the INDIA bloc. As the largest opposition party in INDIA bloc, the party has to take the lead in continuously consulting its allies in meeting the new forms of challenges emerging from the Narendra Modi government and the BJP. Just coordination in Parliament during sessions is not enough.

Since the Delhi assembly elections are over now and the next assembly elections are scheduled by the end of this year, this is the high time that the INDIA bloc parties meet and make a detailed review of the latest political situation and update its strategy. INDIA bloc has to move fast in 2025 under a new leadership. It can be a solo leadership or a dual one. The best political leader to be the convener of the INDIA bloc is the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. There can be joint leadership also. In fact that will be better. Then Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin can be the second one. Mamata has established herself as an aggressive political leader who can fight BJP. Only in West Bengal, in the assembly by-elections held in ten constituencies held after Lok Sabha polls, Trinamool Congress swept all ten, beating the BJP even in its two sitting seats. Mamata is politically comfortable in 2025. She can give enough time for the INDIA bloc coordination and advancement of its programmes.

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Similarly M K Stalin is a perfect candidate for playing a leading role in the INDIA bloc. He has been running a model coalition government of INDIA bloc parties in Tamil Nadu. He will be facing assembly elections only in 2026 like Mamata. He is politically comfortable, friendly with the other non-aligned parties like YSRCP and BJD. His acceptability among the INDIA bloc parties is beyond question. Both Mamata and Stalin are best suited now to infuse a new life into the operations of the INDIA Bloc.

The assembly elections and bypolls have thrown up both new and old faces in the INDIA bloc parties who can act as drivers of change for the bloc to intensify the tempo of struggle against the BJP. Priyanka Gandhi who has entered the Lok Sabha in the latest bypoll in Wayanad constituency of Kerala can be a big asset to the INDIA bloc in the upcoming fight against the BJP in the assembly elections. Priyanka has been projecting the right issues all through. She has been consistently advocating women's issues, including the cash transfer for long. She can be one of the principal leaders of the INDIA bloc at central level, as the BJP has given a big focus on women's issues and this has to be combated properly by the INDIA bloc.

There are two other leaders who have proved their worth in the last round of elections and the political campaign. They are Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren and CPI(ML)-Liberation general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya. Hemant has shown his political acumen by defeating the BJP in the tribal belt of Jharkhand in assembly elections. It was a massive task since the BJP and RSS launched a big offensive to take control of tribal seats. He has emerged as a supreme leader of tribals in the country.

Similarly, Dipankar Bhattacharya has proved his worth by organising big victories of CPI(ML)-L in Lok Sabha elections from Bihar and later in assembly by polls. His leadership has helped INDIA bloc in both Bihar and Jharkhand in meeting the BJP challenge. This CPI(ML)-L leader can be used effectively by the INDIA bloc nationally to take on the BJP.

It is high time the INDIA bloc parties convene a meeting and decide on the new line of leadership. Rahul Gandhi remains the LoP and the Congress always remains the biggest constituent of the INDIA bloc. The issue of a Prime Ministerial face is at all not relevant now. The next Lok Sabha elections are in 2029. The issue can be discussed before or after the Lok Sabha polls taking into account the ground situation. In the interim period, there are many state assembly elections which will have to be fought. INDIA bloc must have a coherent strategy for that. The battle against the BJP has to be fought on all fronts, both in Parliament and outside. Rahul can lead the INDIA bloc inside the Parliament, while Mamata-Stalin duo should be entrusted with the task of infusing dynamism in the operations of INDIA bloc in 2025 and beyond. (IPA Service )

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