Will China Pay Up To Take The Climate Change Lead?

Extreme weather, from lethal heat waves to devastating tropical cyclones and floods, has become more intense as temperatures have risen . And the poorest countries have faced some of the worst damage from climate change, while doing the least cause it.

Developing countries argue that they need US$1.3 trillion a year in financial support and investment by 2035 from the wealthiest nations – historically the largest greenhouse gas emitters – to adapt to climate change and develop sustainably as they grow.

That matters to countries everywhere because how these fast-growing populations build out energy systems and transportation in the coming decades will affect the future for the entire planet.

At the Baku conference, member nations agreed to triple their existing pledge of $100 billion a year to at least $300 billion a year by 2035 to help developing countries. But that was far short of what economists have estimated those countries will need to develop clean energy economies.

The money can also come from a variety of sources . Developing countries wanted grants, rather than loans that would increase what for many is already crushing debt . Under the new agreement, countries can count funding that comes from private investments and loans from the World Bank and other development banks, as well as public funds.

Groups have proposed raising some of those funds with additional taxes on international shipping and aviation. A UN study projects that if levies were set somewhere between $150 and $300 for each ton of carbon pollution, the fund could generate as much as $127 billion per year .

Other proposals have included taxing fossil fuels, cryptocurrencies and plastics, which all contribute to climate change, as well as financial transactions and carbon trading.

How much of a leadership role China takes in global climate efforts is an important question going forward, particularly with US President-elect Donald Trump expected to throttle back US support for climate policies and international funding.

China is now the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the second-largest economy . China also stands to gain as provider of the market majority of green technologies , including solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles .

Whether or not China should be expected to contribute funding at a level comparable to the other major emitters was so hotly contested at COP29 that it almost shut down the entire conference.

Previously, only those countries listed by the UN as“developed countries” – a list that doesn't include China – were expected to provide funds. The COP29 agreement expands that by calling on“all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing.”

In the end, a compromise was reached . The final agreement“encourages developing countries to make contributions on a voluntary basis,” excluding China from the heavier expectations placed on richer nations.

In a conference fraught with deep division and threatened with collapse, some bright spots of climate progress emerged from the side events.

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In one declaration, 25 nations plus the European Union agreed to no new coal power developments. There were also agreements on ocean protection and deforestation. Other declarations marked efforts to reenergize hydrogen energy production and expanded ambitious plans to reduce methane emissions .

Future of UN climate talks

However, after two weeks of bickering and a final resolution that doesn't go far enough, the UN climate talks process itself is in question.

In a letter on November 15, 2024 , former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and a group of global climate leaders called for“a fundamental overhaul to the COP” and a“shift from negotiation to implementation.”

After back-to-back climate conferences hosted by oil-producing states , where fossil-fuel companies used the gathering to make deals for more fossil fuels on the side, the letter also calls for strict eligibility requirements for conference hosts“to exclude countries who do not support the phase-out/transition away from fossil energy.”

With Trump promising to again withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, it is possible the climate leadership will fall to China, which may bring a new style of climate solutions to the table.

Lucia Green-Weiskel is visiting assistant professor of political science, Trinity College

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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