Betting on upcoming US presidential election experiences significant increase
Date
10/19/2024 2:32:03 AM
(MENAFN) Betting on the upcoming US presidential election has experienced a significant increase following a landmark court ruling that removed previous restrictions on the practice. This change allows betting platforms to accept large wagers on the contest between Republican candidate Donald trump and Democratic contender, Vice President Kamala Harris.
The surge in betting activity follows a legal victory for the trading platform Kalshi, which successfully challenged the objections raised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The CFTC had sought to prevent Kalshi from operating, citing concerns that election betting could undermine the integrity of democratic processes. However, a Washington court ruled in favor of Kalshi, stating that there was insufficient evidence to support the CFTC's claims of potential harm. An appeal by the CFTC is currently pending.
With the ruling now in effect, Kalshi has begun accepting bets, with reports indicating over $12 million wagered since the decision. The platform allows investors to place stakes of up to $100 million on the election outcome. Kalshi's founder, Tarek Mansour, highlighted the early interest from traders and expressed expectations for increased betting activity as election day approaches. He noted that the market is currently projecting a close race, with Trump holding a slight lead over Harris.
Bets are made through binary options, which are priced at up to $1 per contract. As of Monday, contracts favoring Trump were trading at approximately 54 cents, while those for Harris were priced at 47 cents. This narrow margin has fluctuated since the market opened, but analysts caution against overreacting to these figures. Grant Ferguson, a political scientist at Texas Christian University, pointed out that while the current data suggests a preference for Trump among traders, a clearer picture will emerge as more institutional investors enter the market.
As the election date draws closer, the landscape of political betting is likely to evolve, reflecting changing dynamics and public sentiment surrounding the candidates.
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