Mighty Dragon: China's J-20 Fleet Surges Past US In Pacific

The US halted F-22 fifth-generation fighter production in 2011, capping its fleet at 187. Meanwhile, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted in May 2024 that the program's costs had soared to over $2 trillion, with modernization efforts adding $16.5 billion.

The report mentions that the F-35's modernization, including radar and engine upgrades, has been delayed due to software stability issues and undefined power and cooling requirements despite reaching full-rate production .

While the report says that while about 630 F-35s are currently in service, with plans to acquire approximately 1,800 more, projected sustainment costs have risen from $1.1 trillion in 2018 to $1.58 trillion in 2023, partly due to efforts to extend the aircraft's service life to 2088.

Although the report mentions efforts to reduce costs, such as improving parts' reliability and maintainability, which have saved an estimated $84 billion, repair times remain slow, reducing the jets' availability for missions.

In addition, the report says the US Air Force and US Navy have reduced their planned annual flying times by 19% and 45%, respectively, to meet affordability targets.

Those challenges may have already tipped the balance of air power in China's favor in the Pacific. In September 2022, Asia Times mentioned that US combat air forces are 12 squadrons short of multiple aircraft types.

Those shortages are
most acutely felt in the Pacific, where the US has only 11 of 13 required fighter squadrons in the region.

Reduced flying hours may also affect US pilots' skill levels. To maintain proficiency, a fighter pilot needs 200 hours of flight time a year and three or four practice sorties a week. A pilot's skills may atrophy at just one or two sorties a week.

Powered by cutting-edge domestic engines and advanced avionics, China's J-20 program is rapidly closing the technological gap with its US counterparts, transforming it into a formidable force in modern aerial warfare.

In a May 2021 article for ISIC Japan, Roger Cliff says that the J-20 boasts advanced stealth features, including a small radar cross-section achieved through external shaping, radar-absorbent materials and internal weapon carriage.

Cliff says the J-20 is equipped with a wide-band, active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, similar to the F-22's APG-77, and advanced datalinks for secure networking.

While producing quality jet engines has long been a handicap for China's aerospace industry, Asia Times reported in July 2023 that China's J-20 stealth fighter may have overcome that handicap by flying with domestically produced WS-15 jet engines, potentially closing capability gaps with US jets.

China's WS-15 engines, rivaling the US-made F-22's Pratt & Whitney F119 engines, reportedly have a thrust rating in the 150-kilonewton range. This upgrade departs from the less powerful Russian Saturn 117S and Chinese WS-10C engines, which limited the J-20's speed and combat effectiveness.

Cliff mentions that China's aerospace industry also focuses on developing high-temperature-resistant materials, integrally bladed rotors and full authority digital engine control (FADEC) systems to enhance engine performance.

He says thrust vector control technology, demonstrated in the J-10B, is being integrated to improve maneuverability. Additionally, he points out that China's development of advanced air-to-air missiles, such as the PL-15 and PL-21, further enhances the J-20's combat capabilities, targeting high-value aircraft to gain air superiority.

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Such advancements boost the J-20's operational effectiveness by improving performance and independence from foreign technology, enhancing China's military self-sufficiency and reducing vulnerabilities in supply chains.

While China's J-20 fleet grows, the US faces tough choices: double down on sixth-generation fighters to outmatch China or pivot to cost-effective solutions to maintain its edge in the Pacific.

Asia Times mentioned that the US Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) sixth-generation fighter program faces significant hurdles amid budget constraints, technological challenges and shifting air dominance concepts.

Initially conceived as the centerpiece for future US air superiority, NGAD aims to replace the aging F-22. However, the project has encountered delays and uncertainty due to escalating costs, estimated at $300 million per aircraft, and the increasing prioritization of unmanned systems and emerging technologies over traditional crewed fighters.

While private defense contractors Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman remain contenders in the NGAD competition, US Air Force leaders have hesitated in fully committing to the program.

Compounding these challenges, the US Air Force is also grappling with the costly modernization of its F-22 fleet, which will require a $22 billion investment over the next decade.

Meanwhile, the broader air superiority debate now centers on whether the US should invest in costly sixth-generation fighters or shift focus toward more adaptable, cost-effective solutions like light fighter aircraft , unmanned aerial vehicles and space-based systems.

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