Israel's recent military actions primarily tactical effort aimed at compelling Hassan Nasrallah

(MENAFN) Israel's recent military actions are primarily a tactical effort aimed at compelling Hassan Nasrallah to disconnect the alliance he forged between the Gaza Strip and Lebanon on October 8. Rather than seeking a comprehensive resolution to the ongoing conflicts or neutralizing threats, Israeli officials aim to negotiate a separate agreement with Nasrallah, effectively dismissing any ceasefire discussions concerning Gaza. This strategy is regarded as both essential and justified within Israeli military circles, with the belief that their use of force has effectively positioned them to gain leverage in negotiations.

A significant challenge, however, arises from the unpredictable nature of Nasrallah’s potential responses to this approach. Following the substantial losses Hezbollah has suffered, Nasrallah may feel the need to retaliate in order to strengthen his negotiating position. His ability to endure setbacks is less dependent on the number of casualties within his ranks and more focused on the psychological repercussions of direct assaults on Israeli urban centers. Should Hezbollah launch a significant missile strike against major cities in Israel, it could dramatically alter the strategic dynamics, compelling Israeli leaders to contemplate more aggressive military strategies, including "clean-up" operations or even a full-scale occupation—concepts deeply embedded in their military doctrine.

Reflecting on past military engagements, particularly the last ground offensive in Lebanon, there are vivid memories of costly confrontations in areas such as Maroun al-Ras and Bint Jbeil. These experiences provoke questions about whether the last 18 years have significantly reshaped the power balance in the region. While the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have demonstrated notable ground maneuverability in Gaza, these operations have been conducted amidst extensive aerial bombardments and prolonged ground assaults. It took considerable time for the IDF to establish control over regions like Beit Hanoun, and this slow operational tempo raises concerns about the current military's ability to execute swift and decisive actions under pressing circumstances.

In this precarious context, the likelihood of escalation remains high. Prime Minister Netanyahu's decision-making has often been perceived as erratic, with his personal interests frequently overshadowing broader strategic considerations. Although Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has shown commendable performance in recent months, the charged atmosphere makes it challenging to rely on his objectivity. For Gallant, achieving a swift resolution to the conflict could be crucial for his political survival, adding yet another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation.

In summary, Israel's strategic calculations illustrate a fragile balance of power and a dependence on carefully measured risks. As tensions continue to rise, the capacity to navigate these intricate dynamics will be vital for Israeli leaders in shaping the future direction of their military and political endeavors.

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