ILO forecasts global unemployment to decline despite persistent disparities in labor markets


(MENAFN) The International labor Organization (ILO) announced on Wednesday its projection that the global unemployment rate will experience a slight decrease to 4.9 percent this year, down from five percent in 2023, notwithstanding ongoing disparities in labor markets. This forecast contrasts with the organization's earlier estimation in January, which anticipated an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.2 percent, primarily driven by a rise in advanced economies.

The revision in the forecast is attributed to a lower-than-expected unemployment rate in key regions such as China, India, and high-income countries since the beginning of the year. The ILO anticipates that this downward trend will stabilize in 2025, with the global unemployment rate remaining at 4.9 percent.

The global economy exhibited slightly stronger growth than anticipated in the initial months of this year, particularly in the United States, while inflation showed signs of moderation, providing households with some relief. In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for global growth in 2024 to 3.2 percent, up from the 3.1 percent projected in January, largely driven by improved expectations for the US economy.

According to the ILO, this stability in macroeconomic conditions is expected to contribute to a relatively stable outlook for the labor market. However, the organization cautioned that medium-term prospects remain uncertain due to anticipated adjustments in monetary and fiscal policies globally, as well as the delayed impact of macroeconomic tightening measures on labor markets.

While the forecast suggests a modest improvement in global unemployment rates, persistent disparities in labor markets and ongoing uncertainties underscore the need for continued vigilance and proactive policy measures to ensure sustained economic recovery and inclusive growth.

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