(MENAFN- AzerNews)
Abbas Ganbay Read more
Sooner or later, peaceful co-existence is about to come true in
the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenian Prime
Minister Nikol Pashinyan expressed great confidence in the Silk
Road International conference held in Tbilisi, where he showed a
map of Armenia's economic communications in the region. The
minister also stated that peaceful coexistence in the region
implies a life "without borders" among Armenia, Azerbaijan, and
Georgia.
It is good to see the "fresh" thinking and "sensible" mind in
which the Armenian Prime Minister is now beginning to arrive on the
way of development and approaching the day of signing the
long-awaited peace treaty. The main thing at the moment is not to
fall into the trap of the divided forces in the world, where the
West is trying to prevent the prosperity of peace in the South
Caucasus.
Changes are taking place inside Yerevan, both for the government
and the people, and it faces the challenge of deciding the fate of
the Armenians who by their free choice left Garabagh. The
Azerbaijani government has guaranteed the security of the peaceful
Armenian population of Garabagh, offered them to accept Azerbaijani
citizenship and stay in the territory, and promised to create all
conditions for them.
However, it is still questionable whether it is possible for
Armenians to return to Garabagh after a peace treaty was signed
between Armenia and Azerbaijan; or let's say if that happens, how
it is going to work.
The Azerbaijani political scientist, Anar Hasanov, said in a
comment on the issue for AZERNEWS that it is
possible for the Armenians who left Grabagh of their own free will
to return again. As to the expert's opinion, it applies to those
who are unable to work, the elderly, and those who need to be cared
for. However, Hasanov also touched on some exclusions.
"Why won't Armenians return to Garabagh en masse, even if there
is peace? Firstly, there will be no self-government and no special
status, much less the presence of international forces in the
region. Secondly, Garabagh is not a metropolitan, but it is more
rural. Let us not forget the fact that Armenians of Garabagh, even
in the period of Azerbaijani SSR, preferred universities in
Yerevan, and did not go back. That is, Garabagh is not a region
where a young Armenian has a promising future from an economic
point of view. So, Armenians will not return, and probably they
will be grateful to fate that they have an opportunity to be in
European cities now," the political analyst said.
According to the expert, there are many Armenians in Russia who
were happy to leave Dashkesan, Goy-Gol, and Ganja and end up in
Moscow as a result of the war, including Armenian refugees who
ended up in the United States. Hasanov believes that in the coming
years, the demographic picture in percentage terms will look as
follows - 95 percent Azerbaijanis and 5 percent Armenians.
On November 2, 2023, Prime Minister Pashinyan issued a decree on
granting Armenian citizenship to those Armenians who wish to obtain
citizenship status, where the country needs its citizens in
post-war times. Most Armenians who move to Yerevan do not stay in
the capital for long and decide to leave the country and move
abroad.
Armenia claims that the number of "forcibly displaced" Armenians
in Yerevan was exactly 120,000, but according to Azerbaijan's
calculations, it was even less than 20,000.
The political analyst says that Azerbaijan has been a little
late in confronting the information war, and it will be difficult
to persuade the world about the truth, as Armenians have long
launched the propaganda technique of portraying themselves as
outcasts and downtrodden.
"In this confrontation, we were late. I would like to give an
analogy. You see, V.V. Putin constantly refers to the events in
Sumgait as the root cause of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict,
while ignoring the events in Gafan and Meghri in 1987, when
Azerbaijanis were forcibly expelled. That is, we failed in the
sphere of information warfare and the initiative passed into the
hands of our opponents," A.Hasanov added.
By distorting and manipulating figures as "all means are good in
war" Armenians, taking advantage of European support, get the
opportunity to exploit figures and consequently receive more
criticism of Azerbaijan from the West and Europe.
"These figures are already synonymous with 'ethnic cleansing',
something that all European structures have stigmatized Azerbaijan
with."
In the case of the return of Armenians to Garabagh after the
signing of the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan,
according to Anar Hasanov, it is possible through a census of the
former Soviet Union after a thorough check. However, documents
produced during the years of occupation will not be valid.
"For example, if a person was born in 1985 in Garabagh, while
not participating in hostilities, he can return. There has to be
filtering. How can you imagine the life of a gang member and a
soldier of the AR Armed Forces living side by side in Khojaly? In
no case should such actions be allowed, because it is a time bomb
for criminals.
I will give you an example from Chechnya. Did many Russians
return to Chechnya after the events of 1994-96? No. Although there
is peace and stability there and there is no inter-ethnic discord,
people preferred to stay in other regions of the country," the
expert said.
According to the political analyst, in the case of the return of
Armenians, a thorough filtering should be carried out. If
Azerbaijan imprisons people for 20 years for joining Al Qaeda,
Taliban, and other terrorist organizations, therefore, it is
impossible to return those Armenians who took up arms against their
country to Garabagh and provide them with all rights.
It is better to wait out the storm than to go into it.
Pashinyan's statements in Tbilisi hint at peaceful coexistence in
the region, and a mutually beneficial economy of exports and
imports. Pashinyan's statement about "open borders" was apparently
hasty and was not discussed further after Tbilisi.
As regards the validity of Pashinyan's proposal for all three
countries, the Azerbaijani expert stressed that it is initially
pursued by foreign policy goals from the cycle of "more Catholic
than the Pope himself", where Pashinyan positions himself as a
politician promoting the values of the West.
"How can you imagine in modern Azerbaijan the appearance of Serj
Sarkisyan or Yashma veterans walking in Yerevan streets! Opening
the border is out of the question.
The fact is that Armenia is becoming Ukraine's number two for
Russia and such a state should accordingly survive what is
happening in Ukraine. If Donetsk and Lugansk are historical Russia,
then Moscow will soon agree with the fact that Zangazur is also
historical Azerbaijan...I think it is clear what we are talking
about," the expert underlined.
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