British Pound (GBP/USD) Forecast: PM Truss In Focus Ahead Of...| MENAFN.COM

Friday, 09 December 2022 09:01 GMT

British Pound (GBP/USD) Forecast: PM Truss In Focus Ahead Of UK And U.S. Services PMI's


(MENAFN- DailyFX) POUND STERLING TALKING POINTS

  • Can PM Liz Truss return order to the Conservative Party?
  • Non-manufacturing PMI's under scrutiny for both UK and U.S..
  • 1.15 resistance level in focus.

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Recent appreciation against the has been attributed to the U-turn by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on Monday as well as a potential pivot after misses on key U.S. economic data ( and job openings). The also shocked markets with a 25bps hike which was initially thought of as a leading indicator for the Fed which has quickly been dispelled by Fed officials yesterday. Although the labor markets is showing signs of cooling due to aggressive rate hikes, Fed officials still believe there is a lot more to come to fully tackle the problem. This being said, today's services PMI data for both he UK and U.S. of which services is the major constituent of respective , could add to lower Fed repricing should U.S. PMI's miss estimates – see calendar below.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Source:

PM Liz Truss is scheduled to speak later today regarding her inframammary economic policies. In hopes to restore some semblance of confidence within the Conservative Party, this speech plays a key role as to its future.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY CHART

Chart prepared by , IG

Daily / shows bulls finding resistance at the 50-day (blue) which coincides with the 1.1500 handle. An inability to close above this level could point to subsequent downside back towards 1.1300 and beyond. Fundamentally, the challenges facing the UK continue to outweigh that in the U.S. with the winter months around the corner, UK energy concerns will likely grow thus increasing the divergence between the two nations as well as limiting the UK's ability to maintain an aggressive monetary policy stance.

Key resistance levels:

  • 100-day EMA (yellow)
  • 1.1500/50-day EMA (blue)

Key support levels:

  • 1.1410
  • 1.1300
  • 1.1000
BULLISH IG CLIENT SENTIMENT

Data (IGCS) shows retail traders are currently equally LONG and SHORT on (as of this writing). At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment but due to recent changes in long and short positioning, we arrive at a short-term upside bias.

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