(MENAFN- Gulf Times)
A large fiscal surplus is seen in Qatar this year, FocusEconomics said and noted total spending is seen rising close to 5% due to the World Cup outlays, while a small fiscal deficit is projected.
Qatar has based its 2022 budget on a conservative assumption of a $55/barrel oil price, up from $40 in 2021.
Qatar's budget for 2022 has estimated expenditure at QR204.3bn, while total revenue will be QR196bn, up 22.4% on 2021. The“expected deficit” has been estimated at QR8.3bn.
QR74bn has been allocated for major projects out of the total expenditures of the general budget for 2022, as the state continues to complete public projects in accordance with pre-prepared plans and strategies.
“GDP growth should gain speed this year, thanks to a boost to government spending and visitor arrivals from the FIFA World Cup scheduled for late 2022, ongoing gas sector investment and improved relations with Gulf neighbours,” FocusEconomics said and noted that a“snapback of restrictions due to new Covid-19 variants remains a key risk.”
FocusEconomics' researchers see a 4.1% rise in GDP in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast, and 2.6% growth in 2023.
Inflation rose to a multi-year high of 6.1% in November from 4.3% in October, likely amid stronger domestic demand. Price pressures are expected to moderate in 2022 as global supply chain disruptions ease and energy markets stabilise.
FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 2.8% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month's forecast, and 2.1% in 2023.
GDP per capita in Qatar is expected to rise to $71,930 in 2026 from $65,922 this year, the researcher said. Next year it will be $64,482, $66,431 (2024) and $69,246 (2025).
Qatar's GDP will rise to $217bn in 2026 from $184bn this year. Next year it will total $184bn, $193bn in 2024 and $205bn (2025).
The country's fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP will be 5.1 this year, 2.9 in 2023, 2.8 (2024), 3.7 (2025) and 4.5 (2026).
Qatar's public debt (as a percentage of GDP) will be 55.3 this year, 53.2 in 2023, 51 (2024), 48.6 (2025) and 46.1 (2026).
The country's current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) is estimated at 8.2 this year, 5.7 in 2023, 5.4 (2024), 6.8 (2025) and 8.2 (2026).
The merchandise trade balance may amount to $56.9bn this year, $51.1bn (2023), $50.1bn (2024) and $52.9bn (2025).
Qatar's international reserves, according to FocusEconomics will be $41.5bn this year and $43.2bn in 2023.
The unemployment in the country (as a percentage of active population) will remain a meagre will remain a meagre 0.2 every year until 2026, FocusEconomics said.
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