(MENAFN- Kuwait News Agency (KUNA))
WASHINGTON, April 11 (KUNA) -- Real GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to pick up to 4.0 percent in 2021, an upgrade of 0.9 percentage point relative to October, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, the IMF said "a year into the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the race between vaccine and virus entered a new phase in the Middle East and Central Asia, and the path to recovery in 2021 is expected to be long and divergent."
It stressed that the outlook will vary "significantly across countries, depending on the pandemicآ's path, vaccine rollouts, underlying fragilities, exposure to tourism and contact-intensive sectors, and policy space and actions."
It added that 2021 will be the year of "policies that continue saving lives and livelihoods and promote recovery, while balancing the need for debt sustainability and financial resilience."
"Early inoculators revised 2021 growth up relative to October projections, with GDP levels expected to reach 2019 levels in 2022," the report noted.
It added "by contrast, for the slow and late inoculators, GDP levels are expected to go back to 2019 levels sometime between 2022-23."
Activity in oil-exporting countries is set to rebound, reflecting "a carryover from the last quarter of 2020, and amplified by the expected pickup in activity in the second half of 2021."
"Higher oil prices and early vaccine rollouts support the outlook for many Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies," the report said.
The recent increase in oil prices "will boost confidence, supporting non-oil GDP, which is projected to expand by 3.3 percent in 2021."
Meanwhile, in 2021, real GDP in the CCA region is projected to rise by 3.7 percent in 2021, "returning to its precrisis level because of strong policy support last year."
For his part, IMFآ's Middle East and Central Asia Department Director Jihad Azour said in remarks "now, a year later, the COVID-19 vaccine and favorable external environment offer hope that the end of the crisis is within sight."
He added that "while growth is expected to pick up in the region, the path to recovery is still long and divergent, with many countries falling behind." (end)
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