(MENAFN- Daily Outlook Afghanistan) Last month port city of Aden which iscurrently the seat of exiled President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi government wascaptured by southern separatists demanding secession of South Yemen. Theseparatists are backed by the UAE, Saudi Arabia's 'So Called partners inYemen. The recent clashes are not the first time the two sides that is exiledPresident Hadi and Southern separatists have engaged in deadly fighting. Threedays of battles in January last year killed dozens of people and woundedhundreds in Aden. Earlier in last month things escalated to new heights againwhen the Southern separatists group called Southern Transitional Council (STC)fully backed by UAE took effective control of Aden on August 10 after four daysof fierce battles that killed at least 40. In practical terms, there are nowthree power centres and multiple militias in today's Yemen: The Houthis, whocontrol capital Sana'a and the northern towns, the southern separatists who arestrong in and around Aden, and the internationally recognised government thatis run from Saudi Arabia. Fight against the Houthis have almost stalled butanother conflict i.e. between Hadi government and Southern separatists isgaining momentum. A temporary stalemate has set in, as Saudi and Emiratiofficials hold discussions. The two governments have issued statementssupporting unity and legitimacy in Yemen. But there is little guarantee thatthe joint Saudi-UAE appeal, will be heeded on the ground in Aden. Currentsituation in South is very fragile and clashes can erupt anytime.
To understand this conflict first we haveto know some historical background of North and South Yemen. The present-dayYemen consists of two formerly independent countries which united in 1990: theYemen Arab Republic (North Yemen) and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen(South Yemen). The two Yemen's had never been formally unified prior to 1990and developed along different political and religious lines. North Yemen'sorigin can be traced back to the founding of a Zaydi Shi'a imamate, a theocracyruled by an imam, by Imam Yahya in 897. Yahya, a descendant of the ProphetMuhammad, was the first to unify the northern part of Yemen under Islamicrule. South Yemen has a different story.The area of Southern Yemen, other than being briefly ruled by the Ottomans andthe Ayyubid Dynasty, had been largely ungoverned due to its sparse populationand harsh environment. But in the 19 th century the Britishers colonised SouthYemen as they were looking for a place, ideally on the Arabian Peninsula, wherethey could service ships en route to India. Still in 1994 two Yemen's merged inthe name of better economy and administrative apparatus but this merger wasnever implemented in its true spirit. Moreover, this unification left manysoutherners with unaddressed grievances about representation in the new centralgovernment and the distribution of state resources. These southern grievancespersisted and became strong through a secessionist civil war in 1994 and thesubsequent rise of the grassroots separatist's movement called SouthernMovement (or Hirak) in 2007.
Even today widespread grassroot supportfor secession persists in the south and was exemplified by a massive rally insupport of the STC's takeover of Aden. For a time being it look like thatfighting in the South have stopped but there is a strong under current whichcan easily lead to full fledged armed conflict between Hadi government andSouthern separatists. There are already reports coming from local officials onthe ground that both sides are gathering troops and preparing military hardwarefor battle. It's being speculated that in the oil-producing Shabwa province,government forces have been preparing to recapture the neighbouring Abyanregion and the port city Aden. For sure this incoming conflict won't be oversoon as both the sides have powerful backers i.e. Saudis and Emiratis whichwon't let their respective proxies to lose easily.
The international community and Arab worldcan't just remain mute spectators of this conflict. As a divided Yemen willresult in years of on and off war between the north and south and SouthernYemen will be more of a haven for militant Salafi groups like Al Qaeda in theArabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Iran may deepen its relationship with the Houthisin the north and make it a client state. A divided Yemen is a perfect recipefor chronic instability and conflict in a country that occupies a strategicposition along one of the world's most important trade routes. A decentralizedfederalist state that provides equal degrees of autonomy and resource sharingto southern separatists, northern Houthis, and other traditionally independentregions in Yemen might form the foundations of a future Yemeni state. The firststep toward de-escalation of this conflict should be that outside powers reducetheir roles and let Yemenis come in forefront and decide for themselves. Thereis an urgent requirement of talks between President Hadi government andSouthern separatists. So that some legitimate demands of separatists likebetter representation in the government can be addressed immediately. Otherwiseunfortunately Yemen will be dragged into another bloody conflict which willonly add to the ongoing sufferings of the common Yemeni.
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