(MENAFN- DailyFX) USD/CADeyes downtrend resistance ahead ofFOMC– rally at risk sub-1.3288 Check out our 2019 projections in ourFree DailyFX USD Trading Forecasts Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars onMondays at 12:30GMT
TheCanadian Dollaris down more than 0.28% against theUS Dollarsince the start of the week with the recent price rally takingLooniewithin striking distance of near-term down-trend resistance heading into theFOMCinterest rate decision later today. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on theUSD / CADcharts.Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinarfor an in-depth breakdown of thisEuroprice setup and more.
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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily
Chart Prepared byMichael Boutros , Technical Strategist;USD/CAD on Tradingview
Technical Outlook: In my lastCanadian Dollar Price Outlookwe noted to look for a reaction asUSD /CAD was approaching near-term resistance at 1.3258/58- 'A breach would likely fuel an accelerated rally exposing subsequent topside resistance objectives at 1.3288 with broader bearish invalidation at 1.3306.' Price registered a high at 1.33 this week before pulling back with daily resistance steady at the upper parallel / 61.8%retracementat 1.3288- a close above this threshold is needed to keep the near-term long-bias viable.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min
Chart Prepared byMichael Boutros , Technical Strategist;USD/CAD on Tradingview
Notes: A closer low at Loonie price action sees USD/CAD continuing to trade within the confines of a descendingpitchfork formationextending off the August / September highs with breach above the medina-line late-last week fueling a rally towards the upper parallels. Initial resistance steady at the 1.3284/88 with a breach above 1.3306 needed to validate a breakout.
Support rests with the weekly open / 50% retracement at 1.3217/20 backed by the confluence support around 1.32- a break below this level would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend targeting the 1.3145/55 pivot zone.
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Bottom line: Loonie has carved a well-defined weeklyopening-rangejust below downslope resistance heading into the FOMC later today. From a trading standpoint, the recovery remains vulnerable while within this formation- look for possible exhaustion on a stretch towards 1.3284/88 IF reached, targeting a break of the weekly lows. A close above 1.3307 would shift the focus back towards 1.3355. Review my latestCanadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlookfor a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical
Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart
A summary ofIG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.63 (38.0% of traders are long) – bullish reading Long positions are unchanged than yesterday and 29.5% lower from last week Short positions are1.2% lower than yesterday and 11.9% higher from last week We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggestsUSD/CAD pricesmay continue to rise. Yet, traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in Loonie retail positioning are impacting trend-Learn more about sentiment!
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Active Trade Setups Australian Dollar Price Outlook: Aussie Breakout Potential into FOMCEuro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Targets- Battle Lines DrawnSwiss Franc Price Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Grinds into Trend ResistanceGold Price Targets: XAU/USD Recovery Remains Vulnerable- GLD LevelsNear-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD, GBP/USD & USD/CHFSterling Price Outlook: British Pound Rally Stalls– GBP/USD Levels -p Written byMichael Boutros , Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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