Date
6/23/2019 10:43:15 PM
(MENAFN- ING) EM Space:The focus on Trump-Xi meeting on sidelines of G20
- General Asia: Market players will likely wait for the G20 meeting to see whether Xi and Trump will actually meet over the weekend. Previously Trump had indicated that he would raise tariffs should he not get to meet Xi.
- Malaysia: Prime Minister Mahathir sees Malaysia's GDP growth this year accelerating above 5%, beating the official forecast of 4.8-4.9%. Speaking at the Asean Business Summit in Bangkok, Dr. Mahathir also expressed confidence about Malaysia's public finances, noting that the fiscal consolidation was coming along fine. While downside growth risks from the global trade war prevail, we believe Malaysia's GDP growth has already seen its cycle low of 4.5% in 1Q19 and the favourable base effects will push it higher in the rest of the year.
- Indonesia: Today's trade report for the month of May is likely to show that exports continue to struggle amid the ongoing trade war between the US and China. Imports also have been on a downturn recently, thanks partly to the government's measures to narrow trade and current account deficits which have been tagged as a major reason for IDR's weakness in 2018. A wider than expected trade deficit today could spark some depreciation pressure on the IDR.
- Thailand: The key question of the week is whether the Bank of Thailand joins the global central bank easing wave at the meeting on Wednesday (26 June). We judge from a sharp slowdown in GDP growth in 1Q19 and sustained weakness in the current quarter that the economy needs more policy accommodation. And the persistently low inflation and runway currency appreciation allow room for lower interest rates. But we the only one in (Bloomberg) consensus are of this view.
What to look out for: Manufacturing data and G20 meeting
Indonesia trade (24 June)
- Singapore inflation (24 June)
- Taiwan industrial production (24)
- US consumer confidence (25 June)
- Fed Bostic, Williams, Powell and Barkin speak (25 June)
- US durable goods (26 June)
- Bank of Thailand meeting (26 June)
- Singapore industrial production (26 June)
- Malaysia inflation (26 June)
- US 1Q GDP 3rd estimate (27 June)
- Bank of Korea (27 June)
- US Michigan sentiment (28 June)
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Author:
Nicholas Mapa, Prakash Sakpal
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